Getty Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts after a 100-93 win over the Memphis Grizzlies.
Detroit might have the easiest final 2-game stretch in the NBA. Somehow, the Pistons have still found a way to make it difficult. Despite Memphis missing 8 players entering Tuesday night, Detroit at one point trailed by 22. With center Andre Drummond sparking a comeback with 5 steals and 3 blocks in the fourth quarter, the Pistons survived 100-93.
This is where Detroit (40-41) stands right now: 8th in the Eastern Conference with 1 game left and ahead of the Charlotte Hornets by a game. A win tonight at Madison Square Garden over the Knicks, the worst team in the East, guarantees a playoff berth. A loss, and the Pistons risk losing a tiebreaker to the Hornets.
Let’s take a look at Detroit’s playoff chances entering the regular-season finale on Wednesday and most likely seeding.
Pistons Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds
The numbers say the Pistons are in good position to make the playoff. According to Playoff Status, Detroit enters the evening with an 81 percent chance of making the postseason. That split up into a 42 percent chance at the 8-seed and 39 percent at the 7-seed.
ESPN’s BPI is similarly optimistic, giving the Pistons just over 81 percent odds. The metric also predicts a 41-41 record, which projects to one game ahead of the Hornets and 2 ahead of the Heat. The last time Detroit was at least .500 at the end of the season was 2015, but it would be only the 2nd time in 11 seasons.
A win tonight mathematically clinches the postseason Per Playoff Status, a win also still gives Detroit a 58 percent chance at the 7-seed. That would require the Orlando Magic to lose, since the Pistons hold the tiebreaker with a 3-1 season series record.
A loss isn’t necessarily a killer, but the playoff chances plummet to just 43 percent. That would only be for the 8-seed, which would set up a first round matchup with the Bucks. That scenario requires Charlotte to lose, as well.
Tonight Versus the Knicks
Team Rankings pegs their final record at 41-41. The chances of beating the Knicks is 64.5 percent. The Pistons have won all 3 meetings in 2018-19, the last 2 by at least double-digits.
It’s possible that head coach Dwane Casey will have to earn the season sweep without superstar forward Blake Griffin. He left the game last night versus the Grizzlies with a lingering knee issue.
Dana Garauder in the Detroit Free Press wrote:
Griffin started the second half but was replaced by Robinson once again with 8:48 left in the quarter following a timeout. He remained on the bench the rest of the way. He wound up with just two rebounds and one assist along with the five points.
Casey said Griffin was available to go back in, but rode the hot hand.
Griffin shook his head when asked how his knee felt.
“I wasn’t able to help us tonight,” Griffin said. “I’ll just take it day-by-day and see what happens.”
The Knicks are entering Wednesday’s contest with a 2-game winning streak, having taken out Chicago and Washington. After New York traded away Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway and Kristaps Porzingis, the roster is similarly depleted to Memphis’.
As seen already, Detroit can still stub its toe against outmatched competition.