Getty Luke Kennard #5 of the Detroit Pistons celebrates a second half three point basket with Bruce Brown #6 while playing the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Blake Griffin went out at the very worst time for the Detroit Pistons. In two straight games, the Indiana Pacers either equalized or outscored the Pistons frontcourt that lacked its All-Star forward. This has led to two straight Indiana wins, including Wednesday’s 108-89 decision at Little Caesars Arena.
Detroit (39-39) had won 2 straight contests over a pair of probable playoff teams in the Portland Trail Blazers and the Orlando Magic. The Pistons are tied with the Brooklyn Nets for No. 7 seeds. The Heat are only a half-game back of both, while the Magic are just a half-game behind Miami.
Head coach Dwane Casey said that Griffin’s knee injury is not a structural issue. Rather, he just needs rest to make sure he doesn’t rush a recovery.
“We need another day with Blake, he’s still sore, but it’s about opportunity (for other players),” Casey said during pregame media availability at Little Caesars Arena. “It’s not structural, it’s what he can tolerate, we’re working, trying to get it back comfortable with it. Still not comfortable with it so the medical people make the decision to hold him until he’s comfortable.”
Let’s take a look at Detroit’s playoff chances after Wednesday, most likely seeding and remaining schedule.
Pistons Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds
The numbers say the Pistons are in good position to make the playoff, and the schedule may finally be ready to ease up. According to Playoff Status, Detroit enters the evening with an 98 percent chance of making the postseason. That split up into a 7 percent chance at the 8-seed, 26 percent at the 7-seed and another 65 percent chance at the 6-seed.
ESPN’s BPI is slightly less optimistic, giving the Pistons just over 96 percent odds. The metric also predicts a 42-40 record, which projects to two games ahead of a 3-way logjam between Orlando, Miami and Brooklyn. Detroit has only been .500 or above 3 times in the last decade.
A win tonight could more or less clinch the postseason. Per Playoff Status, a win tonight would’ve essentially clinched the playoffs with over 99 percent certainty. A loss dips that to a still healthy 96 percent, including 51 percent odds at the 6-seed.
Most Important Games Down the Road for the Pistons
Now to the schedule. It would’ve been an accomplishment to clinch a playoff bid this early with a pretty difficult schedule the last few weeks. Including tonight, Detroit faced off against 5 teams fighting for playoff positioning (@Denver, Indiana twice, Portland twice, @Golden State). The remaining schedule is one of the easiest out of Eastern Conference teams according to Playoff Status.
Team Rankings pegs their final record at 42-40. With 4 games left, there is just 1 game left with a win probablity under 50 percent. That’s a road trip to Oklahoma City at 27 percent.
With that said, the other 3 games are relative layups. April 9 against the Grizzlies (67 percent) and the regular-season finale against the dreadful Knicks (66 percent) should be 2 more wins. A record of 41-41 should be enough to make the playoffs, so basically Detroit has to win those games and muster enough to win another pair.
Game against Memphis and Charlotte will be at home. That plays into the Pistons’ hands, as they currently have an excellent record at Little Caesar’s Arena (25-14).
These tasks get easier with Griffin back in the fold.