Getty Dwyane Wade #3 of the Miami Heat drives against Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics.
In this Eastern Conference race, every loss is magnified. Every team is within striking distance of the others, and everyone is vulnerable to a late tumble out of the postseason with a late lull. Miami could be choosing the wrong time for the latter.
Despite a 3-2 record in the last five games, the Heat have lost in the wrong spots. Last week, it was a close loss to fellow contender Orlando, and this week its a 110-105 losing road decision at the Boston Celtics.
Prior to tonight, Miami (38-39) had won 6 of its last 9, which the only other losses coming to the conference-leading Milwaukee Bucks. 2 of those wins come on the road versus likely Western playoff teams in Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
Injuries could be the Heat’s undoing. Rodney McGruder (knee), Josh Richardson (heel) and Justise Winslow (thigh) did not travel with the team for Saturday’s game in New York and or tonight in Beantown.
A win tonight could’ve brought Miami into a tie for sixth place in the Eastern Conference with Detroit and Brooklyn. Instead, the Heat stand one game behind each and in the No. 8 spot. Orlando is nipping at their heels, trailing by just a half-game.
Let’s take a look at Miami’s playoff chances after Monday, as well as most likely seeding and remaining schedule.
Heat Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds
The Heat did do some heavy lifting on the road versus the Thunder and Spurs to even be in this position. According to Playoff Status, Miami entered the evening with a 48 percent chance of making the postseason. That split up into a 20 percent chance at the 8-seed, 18 percent at the 7-seed and another 10 percent chance at the 6-seed.
ESPN’s BPI is incredibly pessimistic, giving the Heat just over 46 percent odds. The metric also predicts a 40-42 record, which projects to a game behind Brooklyn and Orlando for the final spot. This would squeeze Dwyane Wade out of the playoffs in his final season.
Per Playoff Status, the loss puts a major dent in the postseason possibilities. Right now, the chances sit at 40 percent overall, 21 percent at the 8-seed, 13 percent at the 7 and just 7 at the 6.
Most Important Games Down the Road for the Heat
Fortunately for the Heat, they hold the fifth-easiest remaining schedule out of Eastern Conference teams according to Playoff Status. This may look good on paper, but three of the final five games are on the road (at Minnesota, at Toronto and at Brooklyn).
Team Rankings pegs their final record at 40-42. The hope has to be that remaining games against playoff locks in the Raptors and Sixers to end the season are against teams that are resting starters.
At of the 5 remaining games, all of them have less than 50 percent win probabilities, including 3 above 63 percent. The highest game (Philadelphia at 49.8 percent) should be against a depleted roster as stated earlier. The two against Minnesota and Toronto are both under 40 percent.
The only bright side? Games away from South Beach aren’t the worst thing in the world. The Heat are currently 20-18 outside of American Airlines Arena.