Getty Head coach John Beilein of the Michigan Wolverines reacts during the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament West Regional game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Michigan lost head coach John Beilein to the NBA just a day ago. Tonight, the new Cavaliers leader gets his first opportunity to mold his future roster. Cleveland has a 14 percent chance (as well as New York and Phoenix) in tonight’s draft lottery to grab the No. 1 overall pick (8:30 p.m. EST, ESPN).
Extra calculus is required when talking about what the franchise wants to do. This may be the rare situation where the team with the top selection does not choose Zion Williamson.
Widely seen as the de facto first pick, the 6-foot-9, 270-pound Duke star forward does a lot well. He is unstoppable in the paint (22.6 points per game off 75 percent 2-point shooting), he cleans the glass (8.9 rebounds per game) and he’s a superb defender (2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks per contest). He’s also functional from 3, as he hit just under 34 percent from deep.
The best Beilein teams at Michigan started with excellent point guard play (think Trey Burke, Derrick Walton, Zavier Simpson). Does that mean he might rather go with Murray State’s Ja Morant? Let’s take a look.
John Beilein’s Case for Ja Morant
Beilein implemented a very NBA offense at Michigan, particularly closer to 2011-14. It was those years that he allowed current Butler coach LaVall Jordan to introduce more ball-screen and pick-and-roll elements to best suit guards like Darius Morris and 2013 Naismith winner Trey Burke.
The results led to the nation’s No. 1 offense per Kenpom in 2013, as Burke posted a top-25 assist rate, low turnover percentage and a 38.4 percent rate from behind the arc.
The next year under freshman Derrick Walton, the Wolverines were the No. 3 offense. By Walton’s final season in 2017, the offense was still humming at No. 4 overall. He was nationally-ranked in assists, turnover rate and shot over 42 percent from behind the arc.
Other players contributed, as well, including draft picks in Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III and Moe Wagner. However, if Beilein wants to rebuild his offense in the pros, he has to start with Morant at the point.
First off, Morant is an excellent facilitator. He led the nation in assists with 10 a game. Second, he can stretch a defense (36.3 percent from deep). On the downside, he coughed up over five turnovers a contest, while Beilein teams rarely ranked outside the top-10 in fewest giveaways.
Otherwise, it’s a near-perfect fit for what Beilein wants to do, unless Collin Sexton. In his first season, he proved to be a decent scorer (16.7 points on 40 percent 3-point shooting), but needs the ball in his hands rather than pass. I would consider trading Sexton to someone else for future picks.
Can Beilein Find a Quality Point Guard Outside Morant?
Williamson is clearly a generational talent. Additionally, pairing him with Kevin Love in the frontcourt is putting a lot of stress on opposing defenses. With the massive importance of a point guard in Beilein’s offense, can he afford to skip on Morant?
The Cavaliers have a late first round pick at No. 26, which places good fits such as North Carolina’s Coby White out of his reach. However, Virginia’s Ty Jerome should be available. He’s a decent scorer (13.6 points on 40 percent 3-point shooting), dishes out 5.5 assists and only coughs it up 1.7 times a game.
An ideal drafting situation for Cleveland would be grabbing the top talent in the draft with Zion Williamson and getting Beilein’s ball-handling point guard in Jerome. Should the No. 1 pick not be available, grab Ja Morant and think about stretch 4’s such as Grant Williams out of Tennessee.