Alvin Kamara Fantasy Outlook: When to Draft Saints RB

Alvin Kamara

Getty Alvin Kamara has amassed nearly 1,600 all-purpose yards per season in his two-year career.

Who’s the best running back in the NFL and how can you measure that?

Well for starters, it has got to be someone explosive and who’s presence truly gives the offense a new dimension. Someone whose running style is downhill and physical while contributing to the passing game as well.

New Orleans Saints back Alvin Kamara is certainly a candidate. He might be the perfect fantasy player and a solid option should you miss out on a guy like Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey near the top of the draft.

Kamara is right near the top of the NFL running back rankings and is even considered the third-best option on Matthew Berry’s Top 200 list. While there’s no downside to settling for Kamara, there are obvious risks in an offense as diverse as the Saints.


Loaded Backfield

Kamara has averaged around 800 rushing yards over his first two seasons but has gotten the same production as a receiver. This year, with Latavius Murray and possibly Dwayne Washington or Jacquizz Rodgers in the backfield, carries will likely be more spread out rather than concentrated.

That’s been the case for a couple years now with Kamara, doing so with Mark Ingram in years past. He still managed to earn 194 carries last year.

Where he’s seen fewer carries, he’s been more involved as a check down in the receiving game. Both of his professional seasons have included 162 catches for a total of 1,535 yards.


Rackin’ Up the YACs

In addition to making catches, Kamara is one of the league leaders in yards after the catch. He totaled 642 yards after catches, an average of 7.9 per reception.

He’s a reliable target too, committing only three drops on 105 targets, reeling in 81 catches for the season. That’s a catch percentage of 77.1 percent.

That’s consistency for sure. And it has reflected in his fantasy points. He’s finished fourth among running backs in each of his first two seasons.

But think about that. He’s behind running backs like Barkley and McCaffrey who are the lone backs in their respective offenses. Kamara ranked highly among backs when he was sharing carries.


Assessing His Draft Spot?

Kamara will be sharing carries once again this season, making it tough to justify taking him first overall.

But he’ll likely be gone by the first pick. The big decision to make here is whether he’ll be better than McCaffrey this season. While the Saints are favorites to take the NFC South, it’s because their offense is deeper than Carolina’s, not because of any player.

It’s a tough decision if you have the second or third pick, but not one that will be bad in the long run. Either McCaffrey or Kamara will give you an incredible point-producing talent who racks up all-purpose yards.

But Kamara gets the edge with his returning ability which has increased over his two years. Meanwhile, McCaffrey didn’t factor in the return game last season. So if there’s any separation between the two, go with Kamara at second overall and it will pay off by season’s end.