The Patriots are coming off of a huge Week 1 performance which saw them thrash their longtime AFC rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, 33-3 in an absolute beat down on national television on Sunday Night Football. The 42-year-old Tom Brady looked magnificent as usual, throwing for three touchdown passes and 341 yards in the win.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins looked like the worst team in the NFL, giving up 59 points — 42 points in the first half alone — to a Baltimore Ravens offense that had ranked just 13th in the NFL in scoring in 2018.
These two teams split the meetings last season, with Miami pulling off a miraculous 34-33 victory in Miami on Dec. 9 behind a last-second, 69-yard game-winning touchdown.
But these two teams are vastly different less than a year later. How do they match up this time around? Can the Pats really cover their historic point spread?
New England Patriots (1-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Sunday, September 15 at 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
All odds and betting info courtesy of OddsShark and originally posted by Heritage
- Patriots (-19) vs. Dolphins
- Over/Under: 48.5
New England Patriots
Tom Brady may be 42 years old, but it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon. The game’s oldest quarterback became just the third player in NFL history to throw for three touchdown passes in a game at age 42 or older — the first since Warren Moon back in 1998.
The Patriots completely exposed one of the better teams in the conference — the Steelers are actually the last team to beat New England, back in Week 15 of 2018 — as Pittsburgh struggled just to move the football.
New England held Steelers running back James Conner to just 21 yards on 10 carries while their offense went three-and-out on three of their five drives in the first half.
The Patriots did this without Antonio Brown — Philip Dorset had 95 yards and two touchdowns, Julian Edelman had six receptions for 83 yards and Josh Gordon had three receptions for 73 yards.
The Patriots will enter this game as -19-point favorites — the largest point spread in the NFL since the Denver Broncos were favored by 27 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2013. The Broncos didn’t come close to matching that point spread, winning just 35-19.
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In an exact opposite display of what the Patriots put forth in Week 1, the Dolphins were humiliated in one of the worst losses in franchise history.
The Ravens scored 42 points in the first alone — not only a franchise record, but an NFL record in a season opener. The Dolphins defense allowed 643 total yards, beating the previous team record of 622 yards allowed back in 2011 — to none other than the Patriots.
The 59 points was also the most allowed at home in franchise history.
Head coach Brian Flores took blame for the team’s historic — and humiliating — loss.
“It starts with me,” Flores said. “I’ve got to do a better job of coaching this team.”
Trends and Prediction
The New England Patriots are:
- New England are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New England’s last 13 games.
- New England are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- New England are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against Miami.
- New England are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
- New England are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami.
While those stats and trends will certainly come in handy, I want to delve deeper into the Pats’ historic point spread.
Will the Patriots cover their massive 19-point spread? Based upon this information from Yahoo Sports, I say yes.
“Since 1993, 120 NFL teams have been favored by more than two touchdowns. Those teams are 115-5 (95.8%) straight up and 57-60-3 (48.7%) against the spread.
Only 20 teams have closed above a 17-point favorite over that span, going 5-15 ATS and failing to cover the number by an average of 5.1 points per game.
But the Patriots have been the exception to the rule: Since 2007, New England is 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS when favored by more than two touchdowns.”
Pick: Patriots -19
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