Both teams are trending in different directions as the Raiders have suffered two straight blowout losses after an impressive Week 1 win. On the other hand, the Colts are riding high after suffering an overtime loss in Week 1. Indianapolis has pulled off narrow victories over the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons in each of the past two weeks.
What can we expect from this game and should the Colts cover the spread?
Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1)
Sunday, September 29 at 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
*All odds and betting info courtesy of OddsShark and originally posted by Jazz Sports
- Raiders vs. Colts -6.5
- Over/Under: 45
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It may be 2019, but it’s more of the same old stuff for the Raiders. Fan happiness has reached a low yet again as it appears Oakland will once again go through yet another losing season. Although his supporting cast isn’t great, it’s Derek Carr who has received most of the blame for the Raiders’ early-season struggles.
Carr’s stat line actually looks pretty good (73.5 percent completion percentage and 93.9 quarterback rating) and he’s the seventh-ranked quarterback by Pro Football Focus. However, the ultimate determinant of a team’s success is wins and that is ultimately dictated by how many points you score.
Carr and the offense are not getting it done as they scored 10 points against the Chiefs in Week 2 and 14 points in Week 3 versus the Minnesota Vikings.
If Oakland is to pull off the upset in Indianapolis — the Raiders have a .216 winning percentage when playing 1:00 Eastern Time Zone games since 2000 — they’re going to need Carr and the Raiders offense to score early — and a lot.
The Colts are sneakingly showing that they’re a sleeper playoff team. And while Jacoby Brissett may not be an MVP candidate as Andrew Luck was, he’s a darn good quarterback. The 26-year-old has thrown seven touchdowns against just one interception with a 71.7 completion rate while compiling a 112.0 quarterback rating.
In other words, he ranks third in the league in touchdown passes and seventh in quarterback rating.
He’s not a game manager — he’s a legit quarterback.
Brissett is also complimented by a competent rushing attack led by Marlon Mack. The Colts rank sixth in the NFL in rushing yards and yards per attempt.
The defense is a weakness for Indianapolis and they do play a lot of zone coverage. They’ll hope that Carr — who is one of the league leaders in completion percentage — doesn’t carve up the defense early on.
Trends and Prediction
- Oakland are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland’s last 5 games.
- Oakland are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games.
- Oakland are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Indianapolis.
- Oakland are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Indianapolis.
- Indianapolis are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis’ last 12 games.
- Indianapolis are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games.
- Indianapolis are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis’ last 9 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
When looking at the trends, two things become clear — this game is definitely going under the projected point spread of 45 points. Furthermore, the Raiders have been absolutely terrible against the spread and the Colts have excelled against the spread.
The Raiders are a highly-flawed team and they’ve been underdogs in all four of their games this season. Only once have they beaten the spread.
Don’t expect the trends to change. The Colts will cover the spread and both teams will combine to go under 45 total points for the game.
Pick: Colts (-6.5), Under (45)
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