While these are clearly two teams with different objectives this season, both teams have been trending in opposite directions over the past couple of weeks. While the Broncos have won two straight games after starting out the season 0-4, the Chiefs have lost their past two games in one-possession losses after starting out the season 4-0.
Does this Week 7 matchup present an opportunity for the Chiefs to get back on the winning track, or does this game present the Broncos with the chance to continue their winning streak?
Here’s what you should expect out of this pivotal matchup between these two rivals.
Game Info and Betting Line
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
October 17, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET
Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Coverage: FOX, NFL Network, Amazon Prime
*All odds and betting info courtesy of OddsShark and originally posted by BetOnline
Spread: Kansas City (-3)
The Broncos are one of the oddest teams to analyze in the NFL. This is a team that should be 4-2 after they lost two close games against the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars due to bad roughing-the-passer penalty calls — the NFL openly admitted the Bears one was wrong — but they don’t exactly look like a 4-2 team, either.
Denver actually does a decent job of remaining on the field on offense, averaging 29:14 in time of possession and they run an average of 63 offensive plays per game. That is actually better than the 27:59 the Chiefs average on offense and roughly on par with their 63.2 number of plays per game.
However, here’s where the Broncos really stagnate — and it all falls on quarterback Joe Flacco. Denver can’t convert long offensive drives into touchdowns as they rank 26th in the league in points per game. Furthermore, they rank in the bottom five in touchdown passes and the offensive unit stagnates way too often — especially in the second half.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have struggled as of late after looking invincible over the first four weeks and let’s just be real here — it all starts and ends with Patrick Mahomes.
Ever since Mahomes suffered his foot injury in the middle of the team’s 19-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, the Chiefs have stagnated. Their 25 consecutive games streak of at least 25 points scored came to an end in the team’s loss to the Colts and they scored just 24 points against the Houston Texans in the their Week 6 loss.
It is just the second time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs have lost consecutive games.
We all know that the Chiefs’ weakness is on defense — especially in their defensive backfield. They rank 19th in points and passing yards allowed.
Luckily for Kansas City, they face a stagnant Denver offense led by a below-average quarterback in Flacco.
Mahomes doesn’t even have to be amazing — he just needs to make sure to be decent and not turn the ball over.
Trends and Prediction
- Denver are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver’s last 15 games.
- Denver are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games against Kansas City.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver’s last 10 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City’s last 14 games.
- Kansas City are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.
- Kansas City are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Denver.
- Kansas City are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against Denver.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City’s last 8 games on the road.
This is the perfect game for the Chiefs to get back on a winning path. The Broncos are a solid team, but they don’t have the quarterback — Flacco — to match up with the Chiefs’ offensive firepower.
When you factor in that Kansas City has a healthy Tyreek Hill back in the lineup, the Chiefs should emerge victorious — and will cover the spread as a result.
This game will be close early on, especially when you factor in the Broncos are playing at home and riding a huge momentum wave heading into this game. However, talent will eventually trump all else.
Pick: Chiefs (-3), Over (48.5)