Tennessee vs. Alabama Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Tua Tagovailoa Nose

Getty Tua Tagovailoa also suffered a broken nose.

Just when the Volunteers were starting to play good football, the Crimson Tide rolls in.

Tennessee (2-4, 1-2 SEC) is coming off their most complete performance of the season last week in a 20-10 victory over Mississippi State. It was Tennessee’s first SEC win of the year.

Meanwhile Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC) continued to roll on offense in a 47-28 win over Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 42 points in every game this season as Tua Tagovailoa continues his march towards a Heisman Trophy. The junior QB threw four touchdowns in the win over the Aggies, increasing his season total to 27, with just one interception to his name.

Not surprisingly, Alabama has had the better of the series with Tennessee, winning 13 straight times. Tennessee has also gone just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 matchups against Alabama. There has also been a consistent rend towards the over in this series, with the final scoring beating the total in six of the last seven matchups.

Game Preview: Tennessee at Alabama

Date: Saturday, October 19
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Alabama)
Spread: Alabama -34
Total: 61
*All odds are courtesy of Covers

Betting Trends

  • Tennessee is 2-4 ATS this season
  • Alabama is 3-3 ATS this season
  • Tennessee is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a win
  • Under is 5-2 in Tennessee’s last 7 SEC games
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Alabama’s last 5 SEC games
  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings
  • Favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings

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How Tennessee  +34 Can Cover

Hold onto the football and play a perfect game on offense. Sounds simple right? It hasn’t been. The Volunteers have turned it over at least once in every game this season except one, a 45-0 win over Chattanooga.

Even in their win over Mississippi State last week, backup QB Brian Maurer threw two interceptions before being knocked out of the game with a concussion. Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt is expecting Maurer to suit up this week in what will be a tough atmosphere for the freshman signal-call to handle on the road against one of the top teams in the nation.

How Alabama -34 Can Cover

Spread the Volunteers out and throw the ball at will. Alabama has the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the nation. Juniors DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy continue to wreak havoc in opponents secondary, combining for 15 touchdowns this season.

Tennessee is allowing only a modest 199 yards per game through the air this season, but those numbers are skewed since teams have played from in front of the Volunteers all year long. The secondary will need to be perfect on Saturday or the Tide could roll.


Tennessee’s defense has been better of late, recording a season-high seven sacks and three interceptions in last week’s win over the Bulldogs, but Alabama is not Mississippi State.  The Volunteers will be overmatched in the secondary this week and will have no answer for the Crimson Tide’s playmakers on the outside. This series has trended over of late, and my official play for this game is Alabama to go over the team total of 48 points. If you have to play a side, it’s got to be Bama, who should easily score at least 42 points for the 7th straight game this season.

Alabama 55, Tennessee 10 (official play Alabama TT over 48)

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