Getty Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints faced off on Thanksgiving. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
The New Orleans Saints (7-1) will host the Atlanta Falcons (1-7) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium Sunday. The Saints enter this game almost two-touchdown favorites after having won six in a row.
New Orleans is also 4-0 at home this season, so the Falcons will have their work cut out for them in this one. Atlanta has lost their last six games, and they’re facing a Saints team that has only lost to the Rams this season.
The Saints obviously have the edge in this one, but let’s break the game down and take a look at both teams before getting to trends and our prediction:
Falcons
The Falcons will see the return of starting quarterback Matt Ryan to the lineup this week. Ryan missed Week 9 with an ankle sprain, and he’ll need better protection than he has gotten in previous meetings between these two teams. In their last three meetings, the Saints have sacked Ryan 14 times. That can’t happen in this game if Ryan wants to avoid re-aggravating that ankle.
Part of why the Saints are such big favorites in this one also has to do with how badly the Falcons defense has been playing. Atlanta is giving up over 31 points a game, while the Saints are scoring 24.4–a total that reflects several games without Brees at the helm. The Falcons will have to buckle down on defense if they want to keep this one from getting out of hand.
Saints
The Saints cruised to victory last week against the Cardinals, winning 31-9. Drew Brees looked every bit himself in his first game back after missing most of the season with a thumb injury. Brees threw for 373 yards, three scores, and one interception. This game also marks the return of star running back Alvin Kamara, who has been out since Week 7 dealing with ankle and knee injuries. With Latavius Murray and Kamara in the backfield, Brees will have plenty of weapons at his disposal.
The Saints have also been winning games with their defense, which is giving up 19.5 points a game. They also have one of the best units in the game against the run, giving up just over 84 yards on the ground per game.
Trends, Pick & Prediction
Spread: Falcons +13
Over/Under: 51
Odds Shark has the Saints winning a blowout by a projected score of 42-8, with the Saints covering the spread and the point total a push.
Some relevant trends surrounding the game courtesy of Odds Shark:
* The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
* Atlanta is 0-6 SU in their last 6 games.
* The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against New Orleans.
* Atlanta is 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against New O
* The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.
* New Orleans is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
* The Saints are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games at home.
* New Orleans is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
We’re with Odds Shark on all but one detail here: we think the final score will be under, but the Saints should win this one easily.
Final Prediction: Saints 31, Falcons 14