Florida vs. Georgia Prediction: Fade the Public Underdog

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All eyes are on The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Both the Gators and Bulldogs enter Saturday’s neutral-site matchup in Jacksonville with a top-10 record and playoff aspirations.

Georgia (6-1) has the edge in the eyes of the oddsmakers, opening as a 6.5-point favorite. The line has remained at 6.5 for most of the week, with some of the books in Las Vegas offering Florida +6.

Florida (7-1) is a trendy dog with the betting public getting 63% of the bets, according to The Action Network.  The Gators are 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season covering the number against LSU and Auburn despite losing both games straight up.

Both teams are rested off the bye and both need a win in order to keep their SEC title hopes alive. It’s the marquee game of the week and the only top-10 matchup on the board in college football, with the loser likely eliminated from College Football Playoff contention.

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Game Details

Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location:  TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Spread: Georgia -6.5
Total: 45.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Betting Trends

  • Florida 5-3 ATS this season
  • Georgia is 3-4 ATS this season
  • Under is 5-3 in Florida games this season
  • Under is 5-2 in Georgia games this season
  • The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings
  • Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings

*All trends are courtesy of Covers

Prediction & Picks

This game is a tough handicap, as the heavily bet public games tend to be. At first glance, Georgia has a clear edge on the ground, averaging 236.9 rush yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the Gators rank 43rd in the nation in rushing defense allowing 123 yards per game on the ground. Georgia should exploit this advantage and play to their strength. The line feels right here, so if you can get on the shorter side of six I would take it. But the Bulldogs seem to be the right side as I try to avoid public underdogs at all costs.

PICK: Georgia -6.5 (-105)

The total to me seems too low. Georgia’s defense has yet to truly be tested this year. Florida’s offense has shown vast improvement since Kyle Trask took over under center for the injured Felipe Franks. Trask has thrown 11 touchdowns to just four interceptions this season in SEC play, which includes a 310-yard, performance with three scores in the loss at LSU. Georgia will rely on junior D’Andre Swift who leads the SEC with 107.4 rushing yards per game. Having Swift in the backfield will help the Dawgs polish off drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, which is a surefire way to blow past a low total such as this.

PICK: Over 45.5 (-115)

My bonus pick for this game is the Swift rushing prop of 96.5 yards which can be found on FanDuel. Swift is averaging well over that number this season and the Gators do not possess an elite run-stopping defensive unit. Play the over.

PICK: D’Andre Swift Over 96.5 rushing yards (-118)

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