Getty LeBron James, Lakers
It’s November 3 so this won’t last long, but Sunday’s Spurs-Lakers game will be a showdown between the two top teams in the Western Conference. Each is 4-1.
The Lakers have won four straight and added a second quality win to their ledger on Friday when they knocked off the Mavericks in their first game away from Staples Center. They needed a late rally and a final-second tying shot on a 3-pointer in the corner from Danny Green to send the game into overtime, but they showed some crunch-time grit and came away with the W. They’d notched a pair of easy wins against softies Memphis and Charlotte before that.
The Spurs bounced back from their first loss of the season, to the Clippers, with a win over the woebegone Warriors. That game is an indication that their impressive early record might be a bit deceiving, as it followed wins over the Knicks and Wizards, two second-division Eastern Conference teams playing on the road in southern Texas. San Antonio does have a good win over Portland, but there is an asterisk there, too, as the Blazers were on the second night of a back-to-back.
Lakers vs. Spurs Preview
The trends are working against the Spurs in this game. San Antonio is 0-3 against the spread at home and 1-4 overall ATS. The Lakers are 4-1 and have covered in every game on their current win streak.
The issue for the Spurs, as it is for the rest of the league, is dealing with the combination of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Davis struggled again as a 3-point shooter against Dallas, missing all five attempts and dropping his season percentage to 18.8 from the arc, but he was brilliant on 2-point attempts, going 15-for-23. He tallied 31 points despite only two attempts at the free-throw line.
He’ll get a familiar defender, Spurs star LaMarcus Aldridge, who has gone head-to-head with Davis 22 times according to Basketball-Reference.com and has averaged 19.2 points to Davis’ 22.8 in those matchups. The two saw each other twice last year—Aldridge scored 22 in a win in the first meeting (Davis was 5-for-13 from the field) but Davis won the second meeting, scoring 29 points and holding Aldridge to 2-for-11 shooting.
Much of the game will be decided by the Lakers’ post-up offense (second-most productive at 13.8 points per game and second-most efficient at 1.19 points per possession), and the Spurs’ post defense which has been sixth-worst in the league in efficiency (1.04 points per possession). Expect the Lakers to hammer at the post in this one and work to find Green as a spot-up shooter if the Spurs send help.
If you’re looking for some positives for San Antonio heading into this one, consider this: Going back to the 2014 Finals, when the Spurs closed out the Heat with three straight wins, coach Gregg Popovich has gone 12-3 against LeBron James’ teams.
FanDuel has the Spurs as slight favorites, giving a point.
Lakers vs. Spurs Pick & Prediction
PICK: Lakers +1
UNDER: 219.5
SCORE PREDICTION: Lakers 110, Spurs 106
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