Getty Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans will face the Baltimore Ravens Sunday. (Photo by Jack Thomas/Getty Images)
Two of the NFL’s most talented and exciting young quarterbacks will square off in this one when Lamar Jackson and the 7-2 Baltimore Ravens host Deshaun Watson and the 6-3 Houston Texans.
This matchup will boast two of the league’s top five offenses, with the Ravens averaging a league-high 33.3 points a game, while Watson and the Texans are scoring 26.4 per contest. Who will have the edge in this one? Here’s a breakdown of the game, followed by trends and our prediction:
Ravens:
The Ravens are sitting atop the AFC North and have won five straight. They’re coming off a 49-13 drubbing of the Cincinnati Bengals, and they’ve been riding high since handing the Patriots their first defeat two weeks ago. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, an MVP candidate, has been outstanding this season, throwing for over 2,000 yards, 15 touchdowns with just five interceptions.
Jackson is leading an offense that has become a yardage machine: the Ravens are gaining over 420 yards a game with a well-balanced attack that has been tailored to Jackson’s strengths. Jackson may have some limited targets, however: wide receivers Marquise Brown and Chris Moore are currently dealing with injuries, and are questionable for the game.
On defense, the Ravens are giving up 21 points a game, and are the 15th ranked unit in the league. They are the better defensive team in this game, but they’ll certainly be tested against Watson. The Ravens will likely be without DT Michael Pierce, who is doubtful with a knee injury.
Texans:
Houston has won two in a row, and they sit a game ahead of the Indianapolis Colts atop the AFC South. The Texans are coming off a bye week, so they should be rested and ready to go for this one. Led by Watson, the Texans offense is gaining over 396 yards a game, and they’ll be looking to run the ball against a tough Ravens defense that is giving up just over 91 yards a game. If Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde can get going, this could be a very interesting game–but it won’t be an easy task.
The Baltimore secondary, even with the addition of Marcus Peters, has been more porous however, and they’re allowing almost 253 yards through the air per contest. Watson will have multiple chances to exploit them. If Watson can be both accurate and elusive where the pass rush is concerned, the Texans have a real chance to pull off an upset in Baltimore.
Wide receiver Will Fuller and tackle Laremy Tunsil are both questionable due to injuries.
Trends, Pick and Prediction:
Spread: Texans +4.5
Over/Under: 51.5 points
Odds Shark currently have the Ravens winning and covering the spread at home by a projected score of 30-21, with the total score being under.
Some relevant trends surrounding the game courtesy of Odds Shark:
* The Texans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
* Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore.
* The Texans are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against Baltimore.
* Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
* The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 7 games.
* Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
* The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games against Houston.
* The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
The Ravens are 3-1 at home this season, but Watson and the Texans are 3-2 on the road, and Watson has been a force of his own this season–he could single-handedly keep the Texans in this game. We agree with Odds Shark about the under total–but that’s about it. Watson is both a cerebral and physically gifted quarterback, and he has had the last two weeks to prepare for this Ravens defense. It’ll be a close game, but we like Watson and the Texans in an upset.
Final Prediction: Texans 27, Ravens 24.