Bills vs Steelers: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Bills playoff picture

Getty The Buffalo Bills will play the Pittsburgh Steelers in a huge AFC showdown Sunday. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

The Buffalo Bills (9-4) will head to Heinz Field to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) Sunday night in a crucial AFC matchup that will have huge playoff implications for both teams.

Both teams have had a surprising degree of success this season, and both teams are in contention for Wild Card spots in the AFC. But which team will have the edge in this one? Here’s a preview of the game followed by trends and our prediction.


Bills

Quarterback Josh Allen has shown flashes of greatness this season, especially when it comes to running the ball. Allen will have to limit turnovers if the Bills want to win this one, however. He’ll also need help from his running back tandem of veteran Frank Gore and rookie Devin Singletary against this tough Steelers defense.

Speaking of tough defenses, the Bills have one of their own. Buffalo has been stout on defense all year, and their top three unit is allowing just 16.3 points and under 300 total yards per contest. They’ll be facing a resurgent and resilient Steelers team who will be playing for a playoff spot, so this one should be a back and forth battle.


Steelers

It has been Duck season in Pittsburgh for three weeks, with quarterback Devlin Hodges playing well over the last three games after filling in for Mason Rudolph. Hodges will get help when the Steelers get running back James Conner back from a shoulder injury. How well Connor plays after missing his last three games could be a huge factor in this game.

On defense, the Steelers are led by T.J. Watt, who has 12.5 sacks on the season. They have a smothering front, allowing just over 101 yards rushing per contest, so if they can stop both Gore and Singletary and make Allen throw, they’ll have a strong chance to win this one.


Trends, Betting Line and Predictions:

The following numbers and trends are all courtesy of Odds Shark.

Spread: Bills +1

Over/Under: 37 points

Odds Shark currently have the Steelers winning the game by a projected score of 21-16, with Pittsburgh covering the spread and the total score going over 37 points.

Some relevant trends surrounding the game courtesy of Odds Shark to consider:

  • Buffalo is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
  • The Bills are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games.
  • Buffalo is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against Pittsburgh.
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
  • The Steelers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh’s last 12 games against Buffalo.

The line hasn’t moved all that much. Bovada had the line starting out at -1.5 (-110) and the over/under starting at +37 (-110). Those numbers have shifted to an even line (-110) and the over/under remains the same.

We’re going to go against Odds Shark here. We’re taking the Bills in this one. Buffalo was this close to knocking the best team in football in the Baltimore Ravens off last week. They’re bringing it every single game, and Josh Allen’s legs could be the difference in this one.

Final Prediction: Bills 21 Steelers 17

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