It will be a rematch of the AFC Championship game last year, which New England won, 37-31. New England also won 43-40 when the two teams met in the regular season in 2018. The Patriots are 5-0 at home this season, while Kansas City is 5-1 on the road, so this has all the makings of an instant classic. Here’s a preview of the game, followed by trends and our prediction.
The talk of Tom Brady’s decline has been rampant of late, but the Pats are still one of the best teams in the league, and they’re still putting up a respectable 26.8 points a game. And Brady is still Brady. But the Patriots are coming off a disappointing loss to the Houston Texans, and they’re just one game up on the surging Buffalo Bills in the division, so this game is a huge one for them.
The story for the Patriots this season has been their defense, which has been the best unit in the league all year long. They are allowing a league-low 10.1 points a game, and they’ll need to perform better against Mahomes than they have in their two losses to Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
The Pats will be facing a Kansas City defense that is allowing over 21 points and over 140 yards rushing per game, so look for New England to exploit them in that capacity.
Mahomes is 0-2 in his career against the Patriots, and he’ll be looking to get that first win. It would be beneficial for him if the Chiefs could muster some form of a rushing attack, but they just haven’t been able to get it going on the ground this season.
Lesean McCoy has missed time with a knee injury, and the team is averaging 94.5 yards a game, relying instead on Mahomes’ arm. Kansas City is averaging over 290 yards through the air per contest, but they’ll be facing a Patriots team that has 20 interceptions on the season while giving up just over 163 yards on the ground per game, which is second-best in the NFL.
Trends, Spread, and Predictions:
*NOTE: All figures and trends surrounding this game are courtesy of Odds Shark.
Spread: Chiefs +3
Over/Under: 49 points
Odds Shark currently have the Patriots winning the game by a projected score of 22-19, with the teams pushing ATS and the total score going under 49 points.
Some current trends to consider surrounding this game:
- Kansas City are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Kansas City’s last 20 games.
- Kansas City are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games.
- Kansas City are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against New England.
- New England are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England’s last 13 games.
- New England are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games against Kansas City.
We’re with Odds Shark on this one. The Pats rarely lose two in a row, and this should be a game their defense takes over. Mahomes will still make something happen a time or two, but Bill Belichick should outmaneuver Andy Reid yet again.
Final Prediction: Patriots 27, Chiefs 21 (UNDER)