Colts vs. Saints Prediction: Line Movement for Monday Night Football

Getty Drew Brees and Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints

The public is backing the New Orleans Saints as they host the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football. Despite heavy public money coming in on the Saints, the line has hovered at or near the opening number.

Drew Brees is two touchdowns away from tying Peyton Manning’s career touchdown record of 539. It’s ironic that Brees could set the record against the Colts, Manning’s long-time team. There’s also a lot more on the line than just records. The Saints need a win to keep pace for the top spot in the NFC.

Indianapolis has seen their playoff hopes dashed with three consecutive losses, two within the division. Marlon Mack is 100 yards away from his first career 1,000-yard season. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is a game-time decision with a calf injury. Hilton has been hamstrung by injuries all season and has only appeared in seven games. Zach Pascal has emerged as the leading receiver with 183 yards receiving over the last two games.

We break down the spread and offer our analysis of the line movement for this Monday Night Football matchup between the Colts and Saints. 

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Colts vs. Saints Game Details

Date: Monday, December 16
Time: 8:15 pm
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, Louisiana)
Spread: Saints -9
Total: 46.5

*All prop odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Analysis & Line Movement

This line opened at Saints -9 and has stayed there for the most part despite the majority of the bets and money coming in on New Orleans. It is surprising that this line has not been pushed higher to -10 but it could as we get closer to game time and the money continues to come in on the Saints. According to The Action Network, 67% of the bets and 76% of the money is favoring New Orleans.

We have seen some significant movement with the total in this game, which opened at 44 and has been pushed all the way to 46.5 at some books and even 47. Considering the public’s propensity to bet overs in primetime games, this move does not surprise me at all. Indianapolis will be without their top corner,  Kenny Moore II, who will miss the game with an ankle injury.

The Saints offense is coming off a game where they scored 46 points in a tough loss against the 49ers, so you would expect them to come out motivated to put points on the board. San Francisco’s loss on Sunday to the Falcons has also opened the door for New Orleans to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Based on what we’ve seen with the line movement, there seems to be some value on the underdog in this matchup as we have not seen this spread get pushed to double-digits despite the large majority of the action on New Orleans. I would also lean towards the over, especially the Saints team total, as we’ve seen this number get pushed up higher throughout the week.

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