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The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 3.5-point favorites over the Iowa State Cyclones in Saturday’s Camping World Bowl in Orlando.
Notre Dame (10-2) is making its ninth bowl appearance in the last 10 seasons. The Fighting Irish are averaging 43.8 points over a five-game winning streak to close the year strong. Quarterback Ian Book has not thrown an interception in his last three games. the senior is the first signal-caller in program history to throw for 2,500 yards, rush for 500 and pass for at least 30 touchdowns. Book has not confirmed on whether he will return for a fifth season.
Iowa State (7-5) is playing in its third straight bowl game. The Cyclones are 1-1 under head coach Matt Campbell after a 28-25 loss in last year’s Alamo Bowl. Iowa State has struggled in close games this season with their five losses coming by an average of 18 points, including a nailbiting 42-41 loss to Oklahoma, who made the College Football Playoff. Sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy is completing 66.3 percent of his attempts with 35 combined touchdowns but is coming off a season-low 185-yard performance in Iowa State’s last game, a 27-17 to Kansas State.
ESPN’s FPI gives Notre Dame a 67.6% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Saturday’s Camping World Bowl between the Fighting Irish and Cyclones.
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Notre Dame vs. Iowa State Game Details
Date: Saturday, December 28
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
TV: ABC
Spread: Notre Dame -3.5
Total: 53
*All lines and odds courtesy of SportsMemo, Covers, & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Notre Dame -3.5 and has held firm with the majority of the bets and money coming in on the Fighting Irish.
Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS this season
- Iowa State is 7-5 SU and 5-6-1 ATS this season
- Over is 7-5 in Notre Dame games this season
- Under is 6-5-1 in Iowa State games this season
Analysis & Pick
This is a tough matchup to read as I’m not sure how motivated Notre Dame will be in this game. If the motivation level is high, the Fighting Irish have the ability to completely control this game on the defensive end. Notre Dame has held opponents to 20 or fewer points seven times this season and is allowing just 325.8 yards per game, 21st fewest in the nation. The Cyclones can bring the lumber as well, holding high-flying Baylor to just 21 points in a tough loss earlier this season. Iowa State is just behind Notre Dame allowing 362.2 yards per game, 43rd best in the country. Whichever quarterback can move the ball consistently and avoid the fatal mistake will prevail. But in a tight defensive struggle, I’ll take as many points as I can get. I like getting three and the hook against a Notre Dame squad I fear might be disinterested.
PICK: Iowa State +3.5
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith