Getty Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor
The Wisconsin Badgers are 3.0-point favorites over the Oregon Ducks in Wednesday’s Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual.
Wisconsin (10-3) is looking for its sixth consecutive bowl victory overall and fifth under head coach Paul Chryst. The Badgers last made an appearance in Pasadena back in 2012 when they fell 45-38 to Oregon in a game that featured 1,129 yards of total offense by both teams. That game concluded a string of three consecutive Rose Bowl defeats for Wisconsin. Jonathan Taylor ranks sixth on the NCAA all-time career rushing list with 6,080 yards. Taylor will play in the game despite mulling his NFL fate. The junior needs 186 yards rushing to surpass Chuba Hubbard and become the first player since Ricky Williams to lead the country in rushing in back-to-back years.
Oregon (11-2) is playing in the postseason for the 14th time in the last 15 seasons. The Ducks regular season was defined by a 31-28 upset loss to Arizona State on November 24 that ultimately kept Oregon out of the College Football Playoff. Justin Herbert enters his final collegiate game as the nation’s active leader with 95 career touchdown passes. CJ Verdell is coming off his best performance of the season with an explosive 208 yards and three touchdowns against the nation’s stingiest rushing defense in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Verdell has paced the Ducks with 1,171 rushing yards this season. Oregon has had a lot of recent success in Pasadena, winning its last two appearances in the Rose Bowl.
ESPN’s FPI gives Oregon a 54.1% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Wednesday’s Rose Bowl between the Badgers and Ducks.
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Wisconsin vs. Oregon Game Details
Date: Wednesday, January 1
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
Location: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Wisconsin -3
Total: 51.5
*All lines and odds courtesy of SportsMemo, Covers, & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Wisconsin -3 and has held firm with most of the action split as the slight majority of the bets are coming on Oregon with the slight majority of the money favoring the Badgers. It appears the sharps and public are split on this game.
Betting Trends
- Wisconsin is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS this season
- Oregon is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS this season
- Under is 7-6 in Wisconsin games this season
- Under is 7-6 in Oregon games this season
Analysis & Pick
As usual, we have a fascinating matchup in the Rose Bowl between the Badgers and Ducks. At their core, these are both running teams with powerful styles in the trenches, which means this should be a very physical football game. Whichever team establishes their running game will control the tempo and find the early success. You would think Oregon gets the edge at quarterback, with Justin Herbert most likely being near the top of most team’s draft boards. But don’t overlook Jack Coan, who has made a lot of strides this season in his first full year as the starter and is completing 70.1% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. His 280-yard, two-touchdown performance in the win over Minnesota sealed Wisconsin’s berth in the New Year’s Six. I think there is a reason why the oddsmakers opened Wisconsin as the favorite. The Badgers are the better team, top to bottom. Jonathan Taylor busts a couple of big runs, Coan makes enough throws, and the defense makes a game-changing play in a signature Big 10 Rose Bowl victory.
PICK: Wisconsin -3
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith