Getty Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson will face off Sunday night in the NFC Divisional round. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers are 4.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in Sunday’s NFC Divisional Playoff matchup at Lambeau Field.
Seattle (12-5) is coming off a 17-9 victory in the NFC Wild Card Game over the Eagles, improving to 8-1 on the road this season. Including the postseason, the Seahawks have lost their past eight visits to Lambeau Field. DK Metcalf broke a rookie postseason record with 160 receiving yards, including a 53-yard touchdown, in last week’s win. Marshawn Lynch has 10 rushing touchdowns in 12 career playoff games. The Seahawks are ranked fourth in rushing offense averaging 137.5 yards per game. Seattle’s defense also ranks fourth with 29 takeaways this season.
Green Bay (13-3) is coming off the bye as Aaron Rodgers will look to improve on his 2-2-1 ATS record in home playoff games. Rodgers has struggled this season averaging just 7.0 yards per attempt, ranking 17th out of 32nd qualifiers. Aaron Jones finished the season tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns. Wide Receiver Davante Adams fell one-yard short of a 1,000-yard season but leads the NFL with 40 receiving touchdowns since 2016. The Packers offense is ranked 18th in total yards averaging 345.5 per game.
ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 66.3% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s NFC Divisional Playoff matchup between the Seahawks and Packers.
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Seahawks vs. Packers Game Details
Date: Sunday, January 12
Time: 6:40 pm
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: FOX
Spread: Packers -4.5
Total: 45.5
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of FanDuel, Covers & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Packers -3.5 and has been bet up to Packers -4.5 despite the majority of the action coming in on the Seahawks. This indicated a sharp reverse line move favoring Green Bay.
Betting Trends
- Seahawks are 11-6 SU and 8-8-1 ATS this season
- Packers are 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS this season
- Under is 10-7 in Seahawks games this season
- Over is 8-8 in Packers games this season
Analysis & Picks
The reverse line movement in this game is very telling. With the majority of bets on the Seahawks, it was a bit surprising to see the line drift towards Green Bay. This is a fairly sharp reverse line move favoring the Packers as the pros are backing the home team in this spot.
The weather in this game is also something to keep a close eye on, with a forecasted high of 24 degrees at Lambeau Field on Sunday. In Rodgers’ cold-weather starts (under 50 degrees) with a total below 51 since 2015, the under is 37-27, including 4-1 this season, according to BetLabs. There are some injury concerns for Seattle’s offense as well with left tackle Duane Brown (knee), center Justin Britt (ACL), and running backs Chris Carson (hip) and Rashaad Penny (knee) all sidelined.
I don’t love swallowing points here, but Green Bay is the better team top to bottom and should take care of business at home. Taking the Packers on the money line is safe, but my favorite pick in this game is the under.
PICK: Under -46.5
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith