Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane Prediction: How We’re Betting the Armed Forces Bowl

Getty Tulane running back Cameron Carroll

The Tulane Green Wave are 7.0-point favorites over the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles in Saturday’s Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.

Southern Mississippi (7-5) is back in the postseason after missing out on a bowl game last year. The Eagles missed out on a chance to play in the Conference USA championship after dropping their last two games of the regular season, scoring just 27 combined points and committing eight turnovers. Southern Miss is looking for its first bowl victory since a win over Louisiana in the 2016 New Orleans Bowl. The Eagles own a 23-7 lead in the series against Tulane as the two teams used to be CUSA rivals. The schools are separated by just 110 miles.

Tulane (6-6) is playing in a bowl game for the second straight season. The Green Wave won its first bowl game since 2002 last season with a victory in the Cure Bowl. Tulane stumbled down the stretch after a 5-1 start losing five of their final six games and allowing 35.7 points during that stretch. The Green Wave offense is led by senior quarterback Justin McMillan who threw for 2,229 yards and added 704 on the ground with 26 combined touchdowns. McMillan was the starter in last year’s bowl game, recording one passing score in the win.

ESPN’s FPI gives Tulane a 63.2% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Friday’s Armed Forces Bowl between the Golden Eagles and Green Wave. 

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Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane Game Details

Date: Saturday, January 4
Time: 11:30 p.m. ET
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Tulane -7
Total: 56.5

*All lines and odds courtesy of FanDuel, Covers, & The Action Network

Line Movement

This line opened at Tulane -7 and has held firm with the action split. The majority of the bets have come in on the Green Wave and the majority of the money on Southern Mississippi.

Betting Trends

  • Southern Mississippi is 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS this season
  • Tulane is 6-6 SU and 8-4 ATS this season
  • Over is 8-4 in Southern Mississippi games this season
  • Under is 6-6 in Tulane games this season

Analysis & Pick

This game is filled with good storylines, mostly revolving around the quarterbacks. Southern Miss signal-caller Jack Abraham was once a Tulane a commit but opted for Louisiana Tech instead, where spent one season before transferring to a junior college and then Southern Miss in 2017. Abraham has thrived in Hattiesburg and became just the third quarterback in school history to pass for 3,000 yards in a season in 2019. The Green Wave also has a dynamic signal-caller Justin McMillan was a graduate transfer from LSU who left Baton Rouge after eventual Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow arrived on campus. I think both offenses will have success here but I like Tulane’s rushing attack a little more, especially the dual-threat ability of McMillan who leads the team in both rushing and passing. The Green Wave should also be highly motivated for this one, as a win on Saturday would give them a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in two decades. Swallow the points.

PICK: Tulane -7

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith