ESPN’s FPI gives Kansas City a 64.8% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Super Bowl LIV between the 49ers and Chiefs.
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49ers vs. Chiefs Game Details
Date: Sunday, February 2
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
This line opened as a true pick-em on a neutral field with the Chiefs quickly capturing the marketplace with a majority of the bets and money quickly pushing the line to Chiefs -1.5. The spread has mostly stayed firm in the week leading up to the game.
The total opened at 51.5 and was quickly bet up to 54.5 with the majority of the bets and money coming in on the Over. There has been a slight buy back in the days leading up to the game on the Under as the total has drifted back down to 53.5.
- 49ers are 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS this season
- Chiefs are 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS this season
- Over is 9-8-1 in 49ers games this season
- Over is 10-8-1 in Chiefs games this season
Analysis & Pick
The big game has finally arrived. With all the pomp and circumstance surrounding the Super Bowl, sometimes it’s difficult to remember that the game will eventually be played. This matchup is a true toss-up, and a strong case can be made for both sides.
We’ll start with the defense, which has dominated Super Bowls past. The team with the better overall defense is 43-10 straight up and the team who rushes for more yards is 42-9-1. San Francisco is the winner in both of those categories ranking second in rushing yards per game (144.1) and second in total yards allowed (281.8).
The great equalizer for the Chiefs is Patrick Mahomes, who is 28-7 straight up in his career and has never lost a game by more than seven points. Mahomes has been the MVP of the postseason and has stolen the headlines in the week leading up to the game.
On the other side is Jimmy Garoppolo, who is 23-5 straight up and 24-4 ATS in his brief career. Garoppolo will face a Chiefs defense that has does not match up well on paper, but has played better this postseason and held Derrick Henry to just 69 yards rushing in the AFC Championship Game.
San Francisco has history on its side. The 49ers are 2-0 in Super Bowls played in Miami and are 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season. However, head coach Andy Reid has been impeccable with extra rest this season and is 2-0 straight up and ATS coming off the bye.
The deciding factor for me in this matchup will be the officiating. Bill Vinovich and his crew have called the fewest penalties in the NFL this season, which favors the physical 49ers defense. Joey Bosa and the fierce San Francisco defensive line will disrupt Mahomes just enough to keep the Kansas City defense in check. Jimmy G will do a little more than expected but it’s the defense that wins the championship for the Niners.
PICK: 49ers +1.5
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith