Chicago Bears Rumors: Stats Reveal QB Derek Carr Could Be Perfect Fit

QB Derek Carr

Getty QB Derek Carr. (Photo by Jack Thomas/Getty Images)

With the NFL offseason officially underway, the rumor mill has began grinding at a more rapid pace than ever. This past weekend, during Super Bowl festivities, NFL insider Adam Schefter threw some kindling on one of the most persistent fires that has been blazing throughout the league: that Tom Brady could leave the New England Patriots.

Schfeter tweeted that Jon Gruden and the Las Vegas Raiders were “poised to pursue” Brady if he did not re-sign with the Patriots.

With Schefter being one of the more prominent analysts of the league, there is very likely some heft behind the Brady-to-the-Raiders rumors. Schefter also noted in his column that he thinks Raiders coach Jon Gruden is leading the charge to get Brady:

“One of the teams expected to be leading the way if Brady gets to free agency is the Raiders, whose coach, Jon Gruden, is a long-time admirer of the three-time MVP and six-time Super Bowl champion. The two have a good relationship, and league sources believe that Gruden, who is known to be a highly effective recruiter, wants Brady on the Raiders”

So where does this leave current Raiders quarterback Derek Carr? Carr had a career-high in passing yards this season with 4,054, and he threw just eight interceptions while starting all 16 games. Bears beat writer Johnathan Wood, who writes for DaBearsBlog, threw an interesting statistical comparison into the Twittersphere Tuesday afternoon, and it involves Carr, quarterback Alex Smith, and the Chicago Bears.


Derek Carr & Alex Smith Have Eerily Similar Stat Lines…

Wood noted that if “Gruden decides to move on” from Carr, he “could see the Bears being interested.” Why? Because “Carr is basically a clone of Alex Smith.” He included a fascinating side-by-side comparison of both Alex Smith and Derek Carr’s stats since 2016 in his tweet to back up his point:

The comparison between the two quarterbacks is jarring. Carr has a slightly better completion percentage, and he took less sacks — and some could argue he has had far fewer weapons to work with. Wood also noted in another tweet that Carr’s price tag would also likely to be similar to that of Smith’s, and that if Chicago traded for Carr, his “contract would likely cost similar draft capital. Carr’s contract would give the Bears 3 years of control for less than $20M each year.”

Carr’s stunning similarities to Smith matter, of course, because Bears head coach Matt Nagy led Smith to the best statistical seasons of his career when they were both with the Kansas City Chiefs.

With Nagy as his quarterbacks coach from 2013-2015 and his offensive coordinator from 2016-2017, Smith made three Pro Bowls in his five seasons with Kansas City. He also had the best season of his career in 2017, throwing for 4,042 yards, 26 touchdowns and five interceptions, finishing the year with a 104.7 rating. Under Nagy, Smith had 122 touchdowns while throwing just 33 interceptions, and he completed 65.1% of his passes for 17,608 yards.

Carr has 22,793 passing yards in his six seasons, with a career rating of 90.7. While he’s not as mobile as current Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky, his numbers suggest he may be a better fit in Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme than Trubisky is. Carr, like Smith, excels at the short passing game, and both get rid of the ball quickly.

Carr would have a 2020 cap hit of $21.5 million, per Spotrac. The Bears could free that up with a few maneuvers, so while it’s pricey, it is certainly doable.

It has also been suggested that the Raiders would trade would likely trade Carr for a second round pick, and the Bears have two of those in the 2020 draft.

Another thing to consider? Carr is also great friends with Bears superstar linebacker Khalil Mack, so he would have a familiar face and welcoming presence in Chicago. While it remains to be seen which moves the Bears make, Carr’s stats make him an intriguing option.

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