ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 64.7% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Tuesday’s matchup between the Wildcats and Tigers.
Follow the Heavy on Winners Facebook page for the top picks, latest odds, and more!
Kentucky vs. LSU Game Details
Date: Tuesday, February 18
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Location: Maravich Assembly Center (Baton Rouge, Louisiana)
Spread: LSU -2.5
- Kentucky is 20-5 SU and 12-13-1 ATS this season
- LSU is 18-7 SU and 11-13-1 ATS this season
- Over is 13-12 in Kentucky games this season
- Over is 14-10-1 in LSU games this season
Kentucky finds itself back in the top-10 on the heels of a four-game winning streak and eight victories in its last nine games as they get ready to take on a struggling LSU squad that has dropped three of its last four. The Tigers are coming off an 88-82 road setback at Alabama on Saturday while The Wildcats came from behind in Lexington to beat Ole Miss 67-62. LSU started SEC play 8-0 but have since dropped to second place, one game behind Kentucky in the SEC standings and will be extra motivated in this matchup to keep pace with the Wildcats.
Senior guard Skylar Mays has been the straw that stirs the drink for LSU this season and is averaging 25.7 points and has made 23-of-40 shots from the floor over his last three games. Mays is the catalyst for a Tigers’ offense that features five players who score in double figures. In the middle, Trendon Watford and Emmit Williams combine to average 14.1 rebounds per game.
Whoever controls the paint will likely win this matchup. LSU head coach Will Wade emphasized defense during his press conference on Monday as the Tigers have struggled to keep teams under their scoring average this season. The free-throw line will also be key as Kentucky generates a significant amount of their offense from the charity stripe averaging 24.1 attempts per game.
The three-point line will also be crucial as LSU has struggled to shoot it from distance at home. The Tigers are making just 25.9% of their 3-pointers at home, one of the worst percentages in the country. Kentucky is also in a shooting slump and made just 2-of-22 from the outside in the win over Ole Miss. Considering both teams also play at a slower tempo, bettors should also take a hard look at the Under in this spot.
Expect LSU to be the more focused team in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are 6-0 in conference home games this season and must win in order to have any chance of repeating as SEC regular season champions.
PICK: LSU -2.5
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith