Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 20. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125, DraftKings)
Nestor Cortes has exceeded this line in 16 out of 20 games this year. Against the Tampa Bay Rays since 2023, he has faced them four times and allowed 5+ hits in each outing, including a recent game on 7/12 where he surrendered 7 hits. The only times he stayed under 4.5 hits allowed were against Miami and Seattle, both teams ranking in the bottom three in batting average against left-handed pitchers. One other miss was versus Detroit, ranked 13th lowest in batting average, and against Boston, a team known for hitting lefties well.
While Cortes performs better at home, the line of 4.5 hits allowed still presents significant value. Tampa Bay leads the league with a .325 batting average against left-handed pitchers in the last 30 days. Eight out of the last ten left-handed starters have gone over 4.5 hits allowed against Tampa Bay, with one exception being Justin Steele.
Despite Yandy Diaz’s absence, five expected Tampa Bay batters boast a batting average over .300 against lefties in the last 30 days, all slated to hit in the top five positions. This lineup configuration means more at-bats for their top hitters.
Given the high hit rate and Tampa Bay’s recent success against left-handed pitching, taking Cortes to allow over 4.5 hits seems like a solid play, especially with the team’s ability to capitalize on recent familiarity with him.
Lock of the Day
Max Scherzer Over 15.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
I find this line puzzling, especially considering Max Scherzer was recently heavily favored to exceed 17 outs. His pitch efficiency this season has been impressive, boasting a 3.64 pitches per plate appearance (P/PA), which ranks among the lowest 9% for qualified pitchers.
Scherzer’s overall performance in 2024 has been stellar with a 2.98 expected earned run average (xERA) and a .225 expected batting average against (xBA). His elite 3.8% walk rate and a hard-hit rate of just 34.2% further underscore his effectiveness.
In five starts this year, Scherzer has surpassed 15.5 outs in three out of five outings. The exceptions include a game against Kansas City where he was on a strict pitch count, managing 5 innings on just 57 pitches, and a matchup with Houston where he pitched over 4 innings on 71 pitches in the final game before the All-Star break. Scherzer has reached as high as 95 pitches this season, and barring unforeseen circumstances, he should easily reach 85-90+ pitches against the Baltimore Orioles.
Notably, Scherzer handled Baltimore well in his second start back on June 29, going 5.1 innings on only 77 pitches while limiting them to a .296 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). For comparison, Baltimore has posted a .333 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days.
Over the past 14 days, Baltimore ranks 5th worst in MLB with 78 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 20