Getty Ex-Dodgers pitcher Tyler Anderson
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for August 7. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Javier Assad Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135, DraftKings)
Despite having gone under this line in 10 of his 20 starts this season, Javier Assad has recently cooled off significantly in terms of strikeouts. He has failed to reach this mark in 10 of his last 17 starts, and in his most recent 5 games, he has accumulated only 10 strikeouts in total.
Most of his higher strikeout games came against teams with high strikeout rates, such as Cincinatti, Colorado, Seattle, Atlanta, and San Francisco. However, today he faces a more formidable opponent in the Minnesota Twins. The Twins have demonstrated a strong ability to make contact, with a 21.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in 2024, which ranks as the 11th lowest in the MLB. This trend has continued over the last 30 days, during which their strikeout rate has further improved to 20.6%, placing them 10th lowest in the league for that period.
In addition to their low strikeout rate, the Twins possess a powerful offense against right-handed pitchers, boasting the 5th highest wRC+ at 114.0 for the season. With Assad’s outs line set at 15.5 and slightly juiced towards the under, there’s a possibility that he may have a shorter outing today. This combination of factors—tough matchup, recent performance trends, and the line on his outs—suggests that Assad may struggle to exceed the strikeout total set for him.
Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+125, DraftKings)
The Atlanta Braves have struggled recently, ranking 2nd in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks. Additionally, 5 of the 9 batters expected to be in the lineup have historically posted strikeout rates of 30% or higher against Freddy Peralta.
Although Peralta performs better at home, he has still been effective on the road, hitting the over on strikeouts in 55% of his away games this season, including 2 of his last 3. One of these games was against the Twins, who are notably harder to strike out.
The Braves also have difficulties with Peralta’s pitch selection. He mainly relies on his 4-seam fastball, changeup, and slider. Over the past month, the Braves are batting just .202 (3rd worst) and striking out at a rate of 29.96% (5th worst) against right-handed pitchers with this pitch mix.
Lock of the Day
Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
Trevor Rogers struggled in his debut with the Baltimore Orioles, lasting just 4.1 innings and allowing 5 earned runs on 94 pitches. In his previous 17 of 21 starts with Miami, he had been under a certain performance line. Now, he faces the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been particularly strong against left-handed pitchers recently. Over the past two weeks, Toronto ranks 9th in wRC+ and 10th in OBP against lefties.
In 7 of the last 8 games against left-handed pitchers, the Blue Jays have held them under this line. Rogers, who struggles with control—ranking in the 24th percentile in walk rate and having 2 or more walks in 14 of his last 17 games, including 3 in his Orioles debut—will face a Blue Jays lineup that has the 5th highest walk rate against lefties this season.
This year, Rogers ranks in the 9th percentile for xERA, 11th for xBA, 6th in average exit velocity, and 9th in hard-hit percentage. He averages only 90 pitches per start and has exceeded 95 pitches in just 4 of 22 games. The Blue Jays are expected to field 6-7 right-handed hitters today. While the Orioles’ bullpen was used heavily yesterday, they had a day off on Monday.
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MLB Best Strikeout Prop Bets for August 7