Getty James Harden, Nets
Even for a team that is 14-6 and sits atop the NBA’s Eastern Conference standings, the Nets have had a shaky start. Kevin Durant has been an MVP frontrunner all the way, and some of the role players—Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge—have been outstanding.
But two of the critical legs of the Nets’ Big Three have not carried their weight. The first, of course, is Kyrie Irving, who has simply not been around the team at all this season because New York City has a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for indoor performers and Irving has refused the vaccine.
The second is James Harden, who has been scrambled and discombobulated all year, for any number of reasons—the change in foul-call rules that once benefitted him so much, the absence of Irving which has put more point-guard duties on him, the hamstring injury to start the year that dragged down his early-season conditioning (which was never a sterling part of Harden’s career to begin with).
This, obviously, has had a negative effect on the Nets this year. But it could put both Harden and the team into a difficult position going forward because Harden can be a free agent this summer—and getting a max contract to remain a Net is no longer a sure thing.
‘Do You Really Want to Max Out Harden for 5 Years?’
In his early list of the Top 25 NBA free agents for the summer of 2022, The Athletic’s John Hollinger covered Harden at No. 4, behind Zach LaVine of the Bulls, Bradley Beal of the Wizards and Irving. Hollinger, a former Memphis Grizzlies executive, wrote:
Do you really want to max out Harden for five years right now? He turns 33 next summer and already looks to have lost a step. On the one hand, if Brooklyn isn’t interested in doing a five-year deal next summer, it leaves its flank open for Harden to seek greener pastures; but on the other, every other team is looking at the same risk factors, only they don’t have the sunk cost of all the draft picks Brooklyn gave up to acquire him.
This offseason, Harden passed on his ability to opt in to next year’s $45 million player option and add a very rich three-year $161 million extension on top of that. He figured he would gamble on his ability to opt out and get a five-year, $280 million max contract instead. Sounds good—as long as Harden continues to play at an MVP-caliber level.
He has not. Harden is averaging just 20.3 points, his lowest output in 10 years. He is shooting 40.6% from the field, his worst mark since he shot 40.3% as a rookie. He is getting to the free-throw line only 6.8 times, his fewest since 2012.
The Nets Could Have No Choice But to Re-Sign Harden
That’s where Brooklyn could be in a bind. As Hollinger mentioned, Harden will be 33 and this might just be a blip in Harden’s career, but what if his struggles continue this season? Is he an investment the team wants to make?
They would almost have no choice, because there would surely be another team willing to gamble a max deal on Harden. He could, conceivably, leave in free agency this summer.
If that is the case, the Nets would have had Harden for only most of two seasons, but would have given up a trove of young assets—Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, first-round picks in 2022, 2024 and 2026, plus the right to swap picks in 2023, 2025 and 2027—only for those two years.
TRADE DETAILS (still developing):
Nets receive:
James Harden
Rockets receive:
Victor Oladipo
Dante Exum
Rodions Kurucs
4 1st-round picks
4 pick swaps
Pacers receive:
Caris LeVert
Cavaliers receive:
Jarrett Allen
Taurean Prince
That’s why Harden going elsewhere is not likely to happen. The Nets have too much already invested in him. But Hollinger asks the right question: Does this look like a player to whom you want to pay maximum money from age 33 to 38?
He has not, so far. But the Nets might have to pay him anyway.