The Boise State Broncos needed all the firepower they’ve got to defeat Oregon State in a wild Saturday clash that ended 46-41 in favor of the hosts on the blue turf.
And when the dust settles, it could end up being a pivotal outcome for Boise State as it chases a spot in the College Football Playoff as the best Group of 6 team in the country.
There are still a couple weeks left in the regular season, but Boise State is definitely in the driver’s seat.
“No. 24 Boise State (9-1, 6-0 Pac-12) has been the wire-to-wire Group of 6 Playoff favorite, and at this point, the Broncos have separated themselves from the field,” The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel wrote. “Boise State outlasted visiting Oregon State 46-41 in an aerial shootout that showcased two of the nation’s best young receivers. Broncos freshman Rasean Jones finished with 11 catches for 230 yards (fourth-most in an FBS game this season) and three TDs, while Beavers star Jesse Legree broke Smith’s FBS season record for receiving yards by a true freshman (1,349). Note: Smith played 16 games when he did that in 2024; Legree has done it in 10.”
For the Broncos specifically, next week is actually their last regular season game, at home against San Diego State. They’ll then be in the Pac-12 Championship Game against a to be determined foe.
But with results around the country rolling in on Saturday, Boise State’s path to the CFP is becoming clearer.
Boise State’s Path to College Football Playoff
The simple reality is that if Boise State wins out, the Broncos should be in the College Football Playoff.
Even another loss doesn’t automatically doom Boise State, but that’s a scenario that it’s probably worth avoiding.
“Boise State’s chief competitor, New Mexico, took an unexpected L on Saturday,” Mandel writes. “Visiting UNLV (6-4, 4-2 MWC) trailed 17-7 heading into the fourth quarter before former Oklahoma/Auburn QB Jackson Arnold rallied the Rebels to a 21-17 upset. Jason Eck’s Lobos (8-2, 5-1) were built in the complete opposite style of Boise, fielding the nation’s No. 3 defense but No. 88 offense. In their one power-conference test, they lost 14-6 at Oklahoma. But given the poor quality of its conference, New Mexico needed to be perfect from there to have a shot. Also helping Boise State’s cause: It beat arguably the best team in the American, 8-2 Memphis. The Tigers and 8-2 UTSA have faint chances.”
If New Mexico had beaten UNLV, then Boise State probably couldn’t afford another loss.
Now, a Broncos loss would pit them against teams with worse resumes than them. They’d still have a chance.
But to hold off Memphis and UTSA, as well as the Lobos, Boise State’s best bet is simply to finish the season with a pair of wins.
Boise State’s CFP Seed
The one harsh reality for Boise State is that the Broncos are destined to be the 12-seed in the 12-team CFP.
It’s the last year of the 12-team format, and the Broncos aren’t going to rise high enough to be any better than the last spot as the only Group of 6 team in this year.
That will give them a trip to the 5-seed’s home field in the first round.
“Boise State, which clinched home field for the new Pac-12’s first conference title game, is unquestionably loaded on offense, but its defense came into the game ranked 128th in the country (6.5 yards per play allowed),” Mandel writes. “I shudder to think what the offenses of Notre Dame or Miami would do to the Broncos in a 5-12 first-round CFP game. But I’m not sure there’s a viable alternative.”
Boise State’s Path to College Football Playoff Becoming Clearer