National champions Indiana Hoosiers could be the best case to get rid of college football’s preseason polls.
The preseason rankings give analysts, fans, and bookmakers an opportunity to figure out where the chips will land at the end of the season.
But last season’s polls proved that voters can get it wrong, massively wrong.
At the outset of the 2025 season, Indiana started the season ranked at No. 20. They went on a ridiculous 16-0 run to capture the College Football Playoff National Championship. And in the process, the Indiana Hoosiers proved that preseason rankings mean little on the field.
In contrast, other big names like Penn State and Clemson started the season in the top four. Much to their chagrin, the two schools faded down the stretch.
As the folks at BetOnline Sports & Casino noted, it’s one thing to have pundits come up with preseason rankings, and it’s another thing to have oddsmakers figure out where things are going.
Yes, poll voters reference stats and other metrics to determine who fits in where. But the bottom line is that sportsbooks and oddsmakers leverage multiple data points to come up with a reasonable assumption of who has the best chance to win.
Based on those numbers, the Indiana Hoosiers don’t exactly have the best chance to repeat as National Champions.
The Indiana Hoosiers Are Already Getting More Respect From the Market
The Indiana Hoosiers may not be the biggest beneficiary of this year’s preseason AP rankings, but the CFP odds tell a slightly different story.
BetOnline Sports & Casino has Indiana ranked sixth among the teams most likely to win the national championship, with odds of 9/1. That’s exactly where the Hoosiers sit in the AP rankings as well, but the more interesting comparisons come further down the list.
LSU, for example, is ranked 11th by the AP but eighth in the CFP odds. Oklahoma is 10th in the poll but only 13th in the odds. Those differences suggest the sportsbooks aren’t simply copying what voters think.
The Indiana Hoosiers entered last season ranked No. 20 and proceeded to go 16-0. Now they’re sitting sixth in the preseason poll and sixth in the championship odds. That’s a major shift compared to last year
The Hoosiers have earned some respect, but they’re still not being treated as the overwhelming favorite despite winning the national championship.
The CFP Odds Show Why Preseason Polls Can Be Misleading
The bigger takeaway from the BetOnline numbers is that preseason polls are ultimately subjective. They reflect the opinions of whoever is voting, not necessarily the cold, hard data.
Unlike the Indiana Hoosiers, Florida isn’t even ranked in the AP Top 25, yet the Gators have the 17th-best CFP championship odds at 50/1. That puts them ahead of eight teams that actually made the preseason poll.
Four unranked teams, Florida, Auburn, Clemson and South Carolina, also appear among the Top 25 teams in the CFP odds.
Then there’s Houston. The No. 23 team in the AP poll has the worst championship odds of any ranked team, sitting at 300/1. And it reinforces the argument that preseason polls aren’t necessarily predicting who has the best chance of winning the championship. They’re telling folks what voters think right now.
The Indiana Hoosiers are perhaps the perfect example. Last year, the pollsters underestimated them badly. This year, they’ve moved Indiana all the way to No. 6. But even that may not tell the entire story.
If Indiana has taught college football anything, it’s that the rankings in August don’t matter nearly as much as what happens once the games begin.
Indiana Hoosiers Could Make Preseason Rankings Look Silly Again