North Dakota State appears poised to roll through the Mountain West Conference after dominating the FCS and ranking higher on the Sagarin ratings than any opponent on the schedule.
Longtime Bison insider Jeff Kolpack of the Fargo Forum says not so fast. Kolpack called out On3.com’s Brett Murphy for highlighting the Bison as projected to go 12-0.
“Whoa. Hold on here, cowboy, let’s pull back the reins on this horse,” Kolpack wrote. “I say that by citing history.”
NDSU has been in a similar spot before, ironically with retired former head coach Craig Bohl, who built the Bison FCS dynasty before leaving for Wyoming in 2014. The Bison fittingly have Wyoming as their first Mountain West home game on Oct. 3, the second meeting between the two.
That first meeting came in 2008 when the Bison fell at Wyoming amid big expectations in the firs the first year with the former Gateway Conference. NDSU entered the FCS league expecting to build on big 2006 and 2007 seasons, but the Bison ran into mediocrity instead, and Kolpack could see the same coming again.
“Expectations were high, mostly on the heels of back-to-back 10-1 seasons as a member of the hastily-put-together Great West Football Conference consisting mostly of South Dakota State, UC Davis, Southern Utah and Cal Poly,” Kolpack wrote. “The outlook was so high that by mid-July of 2008, the Bison were picked to win the nine-team Gateway.”
NDSU went 6-5 in 2008, and it didn’t get better in 2009 with a 3-8 record.
Mountain West Teams Have Bulletin Board Material
While the Mountain West teams have been welcoming of the Bison, that doesn’t mean expectations are low when it comes to competing against a program that has 10 FCS championships in 15 years.
Kolpack said it was similar when the Bison joined the Gateway, later renamed the Missouri Valley Football Conference. The Bison were favorites in 2008, and the Gateway coaches didn’t like it.
“It did irritate us,” Northern Iowa head coach Mark Farley told Kolpack. “They were chosen to win the league even before they were in the league. Our players took note of that.”
UNI beat NDSU 23-13 that season, and the Panthers‘ were the Bison’s toughest out in the conference years until South Dakota State rose to power. Now, it’s former SDSU coaching staff member and current New Mexico head coach Jason Eck looking to beat the Bison in the Mountain West.
“Being compared with Notre Dame and Georgia as being predicted to be favored in every game? You can bet New Mexico head coach Jason Eck will call Farley and ask him for advice, if he hasn’t already,” Kolpack wrote. “Or the head coaches at UNLV, Air Force and down the line. Knowing Eck, McMurphy’s tweet is already on a wall.”
NDSU Has Chilling Similarities to the 2008 Squad
This year’s Bison have disturbingly similar qualities to the 2008 squad, especially in terms of who is gone and who is the next man up.
Kolpack broke that down, and it includes the game’s most prominent position. The Bison lost a program all-time great quarterback Steve Walker to graduation in 2007, and this time the Bison are losing a serious NFL Draft prospect in quarterback Cole Payton.
Nathan Hayes will take on the starting job this fall, and he will be in similar shoes to former Bison quarterback Nick Mertens, who took over in 2008. Hayes won’t have top receiver Bryce Lance, who is off to the NFL, just as Mertens hardly had star wide receiver Kole Heckendorf due to injuries.
NDSU also lost linebacker Joe Mays to the NFL after 2007, and this year’s Bison lost linebacker Nathaniel Staelhing to Michigan via the transfer portal, Kolpack highlighted. The Bison are entering a similar reality to 2008 but much different because these Bison haven’t been playing FBS teams every week, which will change once the season kicks off on Aug. 29 against Jacksonville State.
“As we sit here in March, take 8-4 and run with it. Be happy with 7-5,” Kolpack wrote.
Insider Throws Cold Water on North Dakota State Prediction