North Dakota State has high expectations for a first-year FBS program after 10 FCS championships in 15 years, but the Mountain West Conference isn’t a pushover.
That’s also despite the departure of five teams from the conference, which joined the recharged Pac-12. Zach Ballard of SB Nation’s Mountain West Connection broke down the conference in light of Bill Connelly’s SP+Rankings for the FBS teams.
NDSU has the third-highest SP+Rankings at 72 after UNLV, 59, and New Mexico, 68, among MWC schools. The Bison come into the FBS fresh off a 12-0 regular season in the FCS for 2025, which ended abruptly in the playoffs against Illinois State.
“The Mountain West’s newest addition is expected to step in and be an immediate contender,” Ballard wrote. “… this is an opportunity for the best FCS program to prove they can compete at the FBS level on a regular basis.”
“This team will be good, but I’m not sure they will be ready to play at this level on a week-to-week basis,” Ballard added. “… don’t be surprised if they destroy the hopes of other teams in the league.”
NDSU will have tough road games in Mountain West play with Air Force, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii. Both Air Force and Hawaii are fourth and fifth among Mountain West teams in the SP+Rankings
How UNLV, New Mexico Stack Up
UNLV played in last season’s Mountain West championship game against Boise State, and 2026 looks equally promising for the Rebels.
As Ballard noted, the Rebels have the second-best SP+Ranking among Group of Six schools after none other than Boise State. The Broncos, which moved to the Pac-12 this year, made the College Football Playoff in 2024. NDSU faces UNLV on Oct. 10.
“The Rebels should be improved on the defensive side of the ball, and with Dan Mullen returning as head coach, this team has a solid shot at securing a playoff spot. Despite losing Mountain West Player of the Year, Anthony Colandrea, the Rebels are expected to have one of the best offenses in the Group of Six coming in at number 33,” Ballard wrote. “The defense is still a major question mark coming in at number 89; improvement on that side of that ball will likely determine how this team does this fall.”
As for New Mexico, the Lobos have a lot of talent back, as Ballard noted. In addition he forecasts the Lobos as a dark horse for the postseason. NDSU faces New Mexico on Oct. 24.
“The Lobos definitely have some areas of play they will need to clean up if they want to contend for a playoff spot, specifically consistent quarterback play and improved production in the secondary, ” Ballard wrote. “I’m not sure I’m ready to say the Lobos are the favorite to win the Mountain West, but it wouldn’t shock me if they are pushing the PAC 12 and American champions for a spot in the College Football Playoff.”
NDSU Can’t Overlook Air Force, Hawaii
As for Air Force No. 79, Ballard believes the Falcons “will probably be a bowl team” and improved on defense. The Bison open Mountain West play with Air Force on Sept. 12.
Hawaii, ranked No. 84, is a threat in the Mountain West this year. NDSU will face the Rainbow Warriors on Nov. 14.
“The return of Micah Alejado was one of the bigger surprises of the offseason, and he will likely be the preseason Player of the Year,” Ballard wrote. “The loss of Jackson Harris at wide receiver is huge, but the return of Pofele Ashlock and some additions from the portal should solidify this group.”
Analyst Issues Doubt on NDSU’s Ceiling in Year 1