Here's How Ohio State's CFP Chances Change With Win or Loss vs. Oregon

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COLUMBUS, OHIO - OCTOBER 10: Ohio State mascot Brutus joins Landry Brede #66, Julian Sayin #10 and Blaine Bradford #16 of the Ohio State Buckeyes in the singing of "Carmen Ohio" following a 45-16 victory over the Maryland Terrapins at Ohio Stadium on October 10, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

The Ohio State Buckeyes are in a must-win game much earlier than the season than they would’ve expected when the campaign started.

But when Oregon comes to Columbus on Saturday, there’s a whole lot on the line. College Football Playoff hopes might rest on what happens at The ‘Shoe.

It’s not made any easier for Ohio State by the reality that they still don’t have starting quarterback Julian Sayin due to injury.

They’ll be relying on true freshman Luke Fahey, a three-star recruit from Mission Viejo High School in California. Fahey continues to be chosen over Tavien St. Clair, a QB in his second year on campus after being a five-star recruit from Bellefontaine, Ohio.

Regardless of the quarterback choice, though, the only thing that’s going to matter for Ohio State on Saturday is the scoreboard.

The Buckeyes already have two losses this season. And based on the initial College Football Playoff rankings this week, OSU can’t afford a third.

Ohio State’s CFP Ranking

In the initial College Football Playoff rankings that came out this week, Ohio State ranked No. 12.

It’s still a 12-team field this season, but that includes a Group of 6 team, as well — none of whom were in the top-12 of the first rankings.

What Happens if Ohio State Loses to Oregon?

GettyLOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 31: Luke Fahey #13 of the Ohio State Buckeyes gestures against the USC Trojans during the third quarter at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on October 31, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Ohio State likely will miss the College Football Playoff if it loses to Oregon.

The Buckeyes would drop further down the CFP rankings, and they probably wouldn’t have a marquee-enough game the rest of the way to move back up.

It’s likely that a three-loss SEC team (or two) makes the Playoff, but almost everyone in that conference has a major win.

Ohio State lost to Texas in a chance at a banner victory, and the loss on the road to USC hurts more. If the Buckeyes can’t protect their home field against Oregon, even with a backup QB, the committee seems unlikely to give them grace later on to squeak into the field.