Everyone felt the hype surrounding Dante Moore’s return to Oregon in 2026, but his 2027 NFL Draft potential as the No. 1 quarterback off the board might just surpass it in a short while.
Ever since the way-too-early 2027 NFL Drafts started rolling around in late April, right after the 2026 NFL Draft concluded, Arch Manning has been the consensus No.1 quarterback, and even No. 1 overall pick across top boards.
However, the offseason changes things, and that is clearly reflected in the latest mock drafts.
Dante Moore Rivals Arch Manning for No.1 Spot
GettyOregon Ducks Qb Dante Moore rivals Arch Manning for No.1 overall pick predictions for 2027 NFL Draft.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid broke down the top candidates for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, giving both Dante Moore and Arch Manning an identical 15% chance to hear their name called first.
His reason is quite simple. “Moore would have been a top option in this year’s draft but decided to forego the NFL and return to school. That makes him arguably the top player of the QB-rich 2027 class,” Reid writes.
Moore’s decision to return doesn’t just threaten Manning’s draft stock. It opens up the very real possibility that he completely outplays the Texas phenom on the field this season.
On paper, Moore enters 2026 with the higher raw baseline production.
He dropped 3,565 passing yards and 30 touchdowns in his first year as Oregon’s starter, compared to Manning’s 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 7 picks at Texas.
On tape, they operate as total opposites. Moore picks defenses apart with elite pocket mechanics, while Manning relies on his legs—adding 10 rushing touchdowns—to rescue broken-down plays.
“Moore operates with clean mechanics and is a precise processor when protected. His 71.8% completion percentage was the fifth-highest rate in the FBS and shows the accuracy that makes him attractive to NFL evaluators,” Reid adds.
While Moore works to fix those conservative tendencies, Manning gets another full season in Austin to prove his raw physical tools belong at the very top of draft boards.
Can Manning Lock Down No.1 Pick Throne?
GettyOregon Ducks QB Dante Moore rivals Arch Manning for No.1 overall pick predictions for 2027 NFL Draft.
Reid bets on Texas’s revamped offense alleviating the pressure on Manning and unlocking his full ceiling as a passer.
“Manning is the centerpiece of a revamped Texas offense that includes two new running backs in Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown as well as a first-round receiver in Auburn transfer Cam Coleman,” Reid writes. “Manning will have a chance to redeem himself against Ohio State in Week 2; a big performance could set himself up to join his uncles Peyton Manning and Eli Manning as No. 1 picks.”
Unlike Moore, who is adapting to a play-caller shift under new offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, Manning returns to a familiar and far more lethal setup under Steve Sarkisian.
Mehringer was previously the tight ends coach at Oregon. That means he didn’t work with Moore that closely. That’s what the general logic says.
For Moore personally, the change isn’t that big.
“It’s an in-house change, so there’s nothing too serious about it,” Moore said at Big Ten Media Days. “Coach Mehringer, as everybody knows, was the tight ends coach before this.”
Front offices lean toward proven durability and extended game reps. Moore already led a 13-2 squad, whereas Manning enters 2026 still needing to stack 12-plus weeks of steady, mistake-free tape.
Oregon QB Emerges as Arch Manning’s Top Rival for No. 1 QB Pick 2027 NFL Draft