The 2026 T20 Cricket World Cup is fully underway and it has been far from predictable with the way things have played out on the pitch so far. From nature’s forces washing out games to teams facing slim but vaguely promising chances of advancing to the semi-finals after other teams have already qualified for their spots to move on in the tournament, what to expect has changed by the minute.
New Zealand has now won against Sri Lanka, which changes the odds of other Group 2 teams being hopeful to qualify for the semi-final round of the T20 Cricket world Cup. Here’s where the teams stand after New Zealand vs Sri Lanka.
Pakistan’s Chances of Advancing Hinge On Very Specific Outcomes
GettyPakistan’s captain Salman Agha (R) looks at his teammates after their loss against England at the end of their 2026 ICC Men’s T20 Cricket World Cup Super Eights match in the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium, Kandy on February 24, 2026.
Pakistan will play Sri Lanka in their final Super 8 fixture on Saturday February 28, 2026. It is non-negotiable for Pakistan to need to win that game in order to have hopes of advancing to the semi-final. More than just a win for Pakistan when they face off against Sri Lanka, the Pakistan team must hope that New Zealand loses out on some points when they face off against England. If New Zealand continues to win their Super 8 games, then it’s likely that Sri Lanka will secure the semi-final advancement over Pakistan even if Saturday’s game sees Pakistan as the winner.
New Zealand is Now in the Strongest Position to Advance
GettyNew Zealand’s Matt Henry (C) celebrates after taking the wicket of Sri Lanka’s Pathum Nissanka during the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 Cricket World Cup Super Eights match between Sri Lanka and New Zealand at the R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo on February 25, 2026.
After beating Sri Lanka, the team from New Zealand is now in the strongest position of the Group 2 teams who still need to secure a spot in the semi-final. If New Zealand beats England in their final fixture of the Super 8s, then they’ll undoubtedly advance after securing five points. However, even if they lose to England then New Zealand will still possess three points and will most likely advance to the semi-final regardless.
Sri Lanka Faces The Longest Odds But Advancing Isn’t Impossible
GettyDunith Wellalage of Sri Lanka celebrates dismissing Daryl Mitchell of New Zealand during the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup India & Sri Lanka 2026 Super 8 match between Sri Lanka and New Zealand at R. Premadasa Stadium on February 25, 2026 in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
At present, Sri Lanka has zero points and is thus facing the longest odds of all Group 2 teams in qualifying for advancement out of the Super 8s at the T20 World Cup. In order for Sri Lanka to have a chance at the semi-final, they must beat Pakistan on Saturday. That would give Sri Lanka four points and a slim chance at qualifying to advance because Pakistan would still have only one point in this scenario. If Sri Lanka loses to Pakistan, then it’s likely that Pakistan will advance – or at least have greater odds.
Sri Lanka vs New Zealand T20 World Cup Fallout: The Odds of Group 2 Teams Going to Semi-Finals