Getty Head coach Jason Kidd and Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic is being overplayed. His usage rate (39.14 percent) not only leads the league, but it’s borderline Westbrookian. Back in 2016-17, Russell Westbrook notched the NBA’s highest-ever usage rate of 41.65 percent. It worked out well for Westbrook, who earned an MVP award that season, which Doncic is the second-favorite to win this season, behind just Giannis Antetokoumpo.
But at some point, all that overplaying has to catch up to the Slovenian star, right? He can’t conceivably continue at this pace for another 70 games, right? No, no he cannot. This is something Jason Kidd and the Mavericks organization are certainly aware of.
“Asked Jason Kidd about Luka’s insane usage rate to start the season. It’s a concern. ‘People will say he’s 23,’ Kidd said. ‘But, he’s human.’ At this rate, Kidd said, Doncic may hit a physical/mental wall around Christmas,” DC-based reporter David Aldridge tweeted Thursday.
Asked Jason Kidd about Luka’s insane usage rate to start the season. It’s a concern. “People will say he’s 23,” Kidd said. “But, he’s human.” At this rate, Kidd said, Dončić may hit a physical/mental wall around Christmas.
If Doncic did indeed hit a performance wall by Christmas, it could torpedo Dallas’ hopes at another long playoff run.
History Isn’t on Mavericks’ Side
Let’s start with one underlying truth: this isn’t the first time Doncic’s usage rate is through the roof. In fact, his usage rate has been above 35 percent every year other than his rookie campaign, when it was a meager 30.4 percent (for comparison, that’s a shade under Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker’s usage rate of 30.5 this season).
It underscores a truth about the Mavericks and Doncic’s relationship to date: the team virtually begins and ends with their superstar. And not just this year, but every single season. Yes, Jalen Brunson was nice, but even his usage rate never eclipsed 24 percent.
That doesn’t bode well for the Mavericks if history is any indication. During last year’s playoffs, Zach Kram of The Ringer put together a deep dive into teams with one high-usage rate player and their eventual success in the playoffs. Let’s just say, it’s not pretty.
According to Kram, only one team with a player who has a usage rate north of 35 percent during the regular season has made the NBA Finals: the 2000-01 Sixers. With Allen Iverson leading the charge, the team was nearly swept by the Los Angeles Lakers that year. Only two other such teams have ever made the Conference Finals: the Rockets in 2017-18 and the Mavericks last season. And both, unsurprisingly, lost. Compare those numbers to the 27 other teams since 1983 that have had just one star with a usage rate over 35 percent who either lost in the second round, first round, or missed the playoffs entirely.
The point is, whether Doncic “hits a wall” or not, the Mavericks can’t ride one star to the Finals. Unless that star’s name is Allen Iverson. And even then, the Mavericks aren’t hoisting the Finals trophy. The reason is clear: if Doncic (or any star) is dominating the ball that much, then opposing defenses can shade off of the rest of the players on the floor.
What Can Dallas Do?
Ah, with the doom and gloom out of the way, we can actually talk about fixing this problem. For starters, Doncic’s usage isn’t plummeting below 35 percent this season. At least not unless the team pulls off a blockbuster trade for another high-usage star to make that type of usage mathematically impossible.
But what about a blockbuster trade? In one recently proposed deal, the Mavericks could land Lakers star Anthony Davis. While Davis’ usage rate is just 25.5 percent this season, that figure would instantly be the second-highest on the Mavericks this season (among players who’ve appeared in at least four games).
Luka’s shooting gets worse the longer the game goes.
1Q — 53 FG%, 35 3P%
2Q — 53 FG%, 35 3P%
3Q — 48 FG%, 28 3P%
4Q — 36 FG%, 17 3P%
He currently has the 3rd highest usage rate in the 3pt era.
If the Mavericks are worried about easing Doncic’s playmaking duties, then it could look to explore the veteran market, including someone like Kyle Lowry. Lowry looks far from his former All-Star self this season but could settle in as a secondary playmaker alongside Doncic.
If not a trade, then it will be incumbent upon the rest of the roster to step up. Elevating Christian Wood off the bench and into the starting unit would be a great place to start. Getting Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith more looks wouldn’t hurt either.