The Denver Broncos may have taken a little bit of a risk with this recent free agent signing.
According to Alex Kay of Bleacher Report, the Broncos’ signing of ex-Dallas Cowboys pass-rushing specialist Randy Gregory is the “worst free-agent signing” for Denver this offseason.
Kay explains that Gregory’s lack of eye-popping production — he posted just six sacks last season — and the fact that he’s missed many games due to suspensions and injuries is cause for concern.
“While the move gave Denver the edge-rusher it needed to replace Von Miller—the star who was traded to the Los Angeles Rams midway through last season after spending a decade in the Mile High City—it was a rather pricy deal for a 29-year-old who has been suspended three times and also has been inconsistent,” says Kay.
“Gregory inked a five-year, $70 million pact despite having missed 52 games in his first five years and 11 more over the last two seasons,” Kay continues. “He tied a career high in sacks last year but still notched only six over 12 contests.”
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Advanced Stats Show Gregory’s Value
Gregory will be 30 years old this season and has been dealt several drug-related suspensions since entering the league in 2015. He was handed suspensions during the 2015, 2017 and 2019 seasons due to failing the league’s substance abuse policy.
The veteran’s deal with the Broncos will earn him $14 million per season across five years. Kay believes $14 million a year is too much for a player who is entering his 30’s.
“That isn’t the type of production that warrants $14 million per year well into a player’s 30s, but Denver could be the team for which Gregory finally puts up big numbers,” says Kay.
While Gregory’s lack of elite production may raise some eyebrows, it’s worth stressing he’s only played at least 12 games in a season on three occasions. And while the six sacks are certainly not too impressive, the advanced analytics paint a different picture of Gregory’s value.
According to Pro Football Focus, Gregory posted an 84.7 pass-rushing grade in 2021. That was the 12th-highest mark of any edge rusher in the league.
And it wasn’t a fluke, either. Despite Gregory’s lackluster sack total in 2020 — 3.5 sacks — he posted the 12th-highest pass-rushing grade of any edge rusher with at least 100 pass-rushing snaps that season
The Broncos had been seeking Von Miller’s replacement since his mid-season trade last year. And while there were arguably better and more accomplished options on the market — Chandler Jones comes to mind — Gregory’s untapped ceiling is what ultimately garnered him his big deal with the Broncos.
With Gregory and Bradley Chubb lined up on the edge, Denver will aim to have one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league entering 2022. Chubb posted a 79.4 pass-rushing grade in 2020, the 14th-highest of any edge rusher.
Hackett on Wilson Trade: It’s About the QB
If you think Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett has any buyer’s remorse when it comes to acquiring QB Russell Wilson, think again.
“In the end, it’s about a quarterback,” Hackett said this week via Keith Cummings of Sports Illustrated. “You can ask all these guys around here. You have to have a quarterback to have a chance. It’s whatever it takes to get a quarterback.”
Denver did give up a king’s ransom in three players, two first-round draft picks, two second-rounders and a mid-round draft pick to acquire Wilson. However, the importance of the quarterback position can’t be stressed enough.
The Broncos would know better than anyone considering they’ve missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons due to not having a franchise quarterback.
Recent Defensive Addition Labeled Broncos’ ‘Worst Free-Agent Signing’