Lions See Eye-Catching Over-Under Win Total Set for 2022 Season

Detroit Lions

Getty The Lions celebrate during a 2022 game against the Packers.

Now that the Detroit Lions schedule has been completed, a fresh look can be given to breaking down the games, times and matchups for the team. That includes setting some potential win totals as well.

While most fans and analysts could be described as pessimistic about the team, the chance does exist for them to have a decent season in the minds of the computers when biases are taken out. When that happens, the Lions don’t look like such a bad team on paper for 2022.

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Recently, NFL.com numbers guru Cynthia Frelund took a look at running a simulation on the 2022 season through with a projected 53-man roster for every team. The results of those simulations yield a win total for the team, and the Lions number was quite eye-catching.

According to Frelund, the total is set at over six wins for the Lions, with the team checking in at 7.4 in the piece. They are currently a +475 to make the playoffs, +1200 to win the NFC North and +7000 to win the NFC as a whole. While those odds might be longer, the bottom line is the Lions could have a good season, and a much better year than they did in 2021.

“The Lions have a 45 percent or higher win probability in five of their final six games, with their season finale at Green Bay the only one outside of that range,” Frelund wrote in the piece.

It’s true that Detroit’s schedule could set the team up to do some bigger things down the stretch. It’s just one of a few advantages it provides that folks are taking notice of now.


Breaking Down Lions’ 2022 Schedule

Detroit’s slate is very interesting this coming season indeed, and if the Lions can build some momentum, it could be easy to see how the team could get things going and generate some positivity. The team will play at home three out of the first four weeks of the season. Detroit starts with Philadelphia and Washington at home before hitting the road to take on a Minnesota team they narrowly lost to on the road in 2021. Then, they come back home to take on a drastically changed Seattle team that has seen some major reconstruction this offseason. The Commanders aren’t trending toward being one of the best teams in the league, and whether the Eagles look as good as they did at times in 2021 is anyone’s guess. That’s a very friendly way to start the year for Detroit.

Fans may roll their eyes, but there is a good shot for the Lions to start out 3-1, or at the very least 2-2 with this home-friendly setup. That could prime them for a solid finish to the year after a tough middle of the slate plays out.

In terms of the finish, this year, providing Detroit doesn’t flail early, there is a chance the Lions could use a late post-Thanksgiving push to perhaps get themselves into playoff contention. From Week 13-17, the Lions will play teams that on paper, they should have a good chance at beating prior to finishing at Lambeau Field. Over that stretch, their toughest games could well be against either Minnesota at home or the New York Jets on the road. That sets Detroit up for either an epic fail to finish a lost season of tanking, or a legendary push to write an improbable playoff story.

Regardless, right now, this finish is looking as if it could be mighty favorable for the Lions and play a determining factor in how the 2022 season plays out. It could be the reason for some of the over-under optimism the experts have.


Lions Schedule Also Provides Major Travel Advantage

If being near home sweet home can help a team, Detroit’s slated to get plenty of opportunities to feel comfortable in 2022. This year, the Lions aren’t going to be straying far from the midwest whatsoever in terms of their travel miles, and that could be the biggest possible advantage their schedule will offer this year.

Before the schedule came out, ESPN’s Adam Schefter showed a revealing look at how things are going to stack up for teams in the future in terms of travel. The Lions catch a lucky break in a big way with their travel for this coming season, with only 8,348 yards and only 8 total timezones changed. The information Schefter revealed was first shared by Bookies.com in a piece by Bill Speros.

The Lions traveled out west multiple times in 2021, and were one of the most battle-tested teams in terms of travel. That’s not an excuse for a 3-13-1 record, but only serves to point out that they were constantly on the move and their bodies had to deal with the reality of multiple timezone changes.

Detroit could have plenty of reason to feel good about their schedule this year, and might even be able to run up a decent win total as a result if things go right. That’s a reason to feel good ahead of a new year, indeed.

While some might be sleeping on the Lions, the early data shows it might not be a good idea to do that.

READ NEXT: Watch Lions’ Hilarious Viral 2022 Schedule Release

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