The NFL playoffs are just a couple days away and they are up for grabs in the NFC, all seven participants are flawed in some way, making it very difficult to predict which one will emerge to represent the conference. The Philadelphia Eagles are sitting in the #3 spot getting ready to take on the San Francisco 49ers Sunday 4:30 at Lincoln Financial Field.
Who’s Coming Out?
The Seahawks boast the top scoring defense in all the land but their turnover ratio ranks #19 in the league and their quarterback, Sam Darnold, has never won a playoff game and is third in the league in interceptions with 14.
The Chicago Bears might be the feel good story of the year. Head coach Ben Johnson took a five win team and turned them around into division champions, while grabbing the #2 seed in the conference. But for all of their bells and whistles and amazing finishes this year under second year quarterback Caleb Williams, the Bears are skidding into the post-season on a two-game losing streak and have the worst defense of any of the 14 playoff teams, ranked #23, giving up 24.4 points per game.
The Carolina Panthers, I’ll just stop there. They enter their first round Wildcard game hosting the Los Angeles Rams with a sub-500 record of 8-9 and are a 10.5 home dog.
L.A. is a team with all kinds of weapons for quarterback Matthew Stafford to play with. But Sean Mcvay’s team blew a 16 point lead to the Seahawks a couple weeks ago as a two point conversion went freakishly awry, essentially costing them the #1 seed in the conference. They have small cornerbacks and have a propensity for giving up big leads and points in chunks. Their special teams haven’t done them any favors either, costing them three games this past season.
The 49ers, who had been scoring 34 points per game on a five game winning streak, had a chance to seize the top spot in the conference last Saturday but got a serious wake-up call as they were shut down at home by the Seahawks 13-3, giving Seattle the much covered first round bye and their 14th win this year.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers enter the playoffs in their usually spot, the #7 seed for the third year in a row, with their eyes set on a first round tilt with the Bears for the third time this season. The Packers are taking on water, losers of their last four and haven’t won a game since their best player, Micah Parsons went down for the year with an ACL tear. Quarterback Jordan Love will start for the Pack this weekend, but he’s coming off a two game hiatus from a concussion and never met an ill-advised interception he didn’t like to throw at a critical time.
Advantage: Eagles
That brings us to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Super Bowl champions, who are embarking on their title defense with a healthy roster but lots of questions as to whether their offense can get their act together in time to make another post-season run. Their ground game went from #2 in the league last year to #17 this year as they continually have struggled to get their identity back. But for all of the Eagles’ uneven offensive stretches this season, Philly enters the postseason with one advantage no defensive coordinator can scheme away.
He may not be the ultimate weapon but he is a weapon nonetheless. Over the last three seasons, Hurts has built a reputation as one of the league’s biggest big-time players, repeatedly making big-time plays in big-time games. That God-given trait has the Eagles positioned to chase something rare. They are trying to become just the ninth franchise in the Super Bowl era to win back to back Super Bowls. It would be the tenth time a team repeated as the Steelers did it twice, in 1974 and 1975 and again in 1978 and 1979.
Hurts finished the regular season with 3,224 passing yards, 25 touchdown passes, eight rushing scores and a QB rating just a hair under 100. Only six quarterbacks threw more touchdown passes this year than the defending Super Bowl MVP and no quarterback threw fewer interceptions (6).
A.J.Brown, Devonta Smith and Saquon Barkley remain the central pieces of the offense, but this team still goes as far as Hurts does. History suggests that could be the last game in February, as he’s done two of the last three years.
Hurts enters the playoffs with a 6–3 postseason record that includes a Super Bowl championship. Among this year’s playoff quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are the only other quarterbacks who can say the same.
The Defense Needs Some Rest
If the Eagles get Brown, Smith, Barkley and tight end Dallas Goedert involved early and allow Hurts to establish a rhythm, the ripple effect certainly benefits the other half of the roster as well. It would put the game in the hands of Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and keeps his defense off the field long enough not to be gassed in the critical moments of the fourth quarter like they were in Buffalo.
While much of the league chases explosives, the Birds have leaned into asphyxiation and ball security. The Eagles finished second among NFC playoff teams in points allowed and have turned the red zone into a dead zone for opposing offenses, keeping them out of the end zone on just about half of their trips inside the 20.
That reality creates some leeway for an offense that oftentimes goes flat.
“Right now, they can lean on their defense and special teams,” former Eagles linebacker Seth Joyner told Matt Lombardo, Senior NFL writer and founder of Between The Hashmarks. “If they miraculously figure out how to cut Jalen loose to be less conservative, they have a real chance.”
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Getting After It
Fangio’s unit enters the postseason ranked ninth in the league with 42 sacks, only the Seahawks recorded more of the NFC playoff teams but in the last four games that the starters played the Birds have racked up 18 of them and finished the year having given up the third fewest points in the league, 18.8.
Since Birds head coach Nick Sirianni rested most of his starters last Sunday in the season finale, healthy and refreshed only amplify Philly’s advantage.
“It’s their defense,” NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger told Between The Hashmarks when asked about the Eagles’ biggest key to a repeat. “They’re going to be healthy, and they’re pretty fresh from many starters not playing in the finale at home.”
Offensive Line Needs to Go Harder
Still, no postseason run survives without trench dominance, something that’s been absent for much of the season and Joyner wasn’t afraid to call out the Eagles once vaunted offensive line for their effort or lack thereof this year.
“Most important,” Joyner added, “if the offensive line decides to do their jobs to the whistle, they’ve got a really good chance at the repeat.”
As usual the boys up front remain the key ingredient.
If the Eagles are going to raise a third Lombardi Trophy, it will not be because they outscored everyone. It will be because they suffocated games, controlled the clock, and trusted a quarterback who has repeatedly shown he is built for the weight and stressors of January.
Say what you want but the Eagles continue to win with old-school principles, protecting the football, getting after the quarterback and precision play under pressure from their Super Bowl MVP. That Super Bowl MVP is the only player in NFL history to have thrown 10 touchdown passes to go along with 1o rushing touchdowns in the post-season and he did it in just 9 playoff games. If Hurts is dialed in starting on Sunday, the Birds are going to be a very tough out.
Eagles’ Weaponized Offense Embarks on Title Defense as the Stakes Get Higher