The PGA Tour playoffs are here, and while the playoffs for men’s professional golf won’t ever be mistaken for, say, the NFL playoffs, it at least gives bettors and DFS players one of their last chances to make picks for the summer.
First up on the Tour’s FedEx Cup playoffs: the aptly named FedEx St. Jude Championship.
The St. Jude is the first of three playoff events where the fields will shrink by 20 each week leading up to the Tour Championship at East Lake. That means there are 70 players in the field for the opener, or at least there would be had Rory McIlroy not backed out.
First up for the FedEx Cup Playoffs: St. Jude Championship
McIlroy’s absence will affect the betting board, which we’ll get to, but here’s what you need to know about TPC Southwind.
TPC Southwind (Memphis, Tenn.)
Par: 70 (35-35)
Yardage: 7,288 yards
Purse: $20 million ($3.6 million to the winner)
Defending champion: Hideki Matsuyama
Notes: The course underwent a renovation during the offseason, work that included rebuilding and resurfacing all 18 greens. That work on the greens recaptured some lost square footage on the bermudagrass putting surfaces. … The course was also lengthened slightly (less than 50 yards). … As the Tour notes in its course sheet, the Memphis area has been drenched with rain this season (53 inches of rain so far this year after just 56 inches in all of 2024.). … That might take away some of the bouncy-ness that can come with newly resurfaced greens.
Here are the favorites, per GolfOdds.com:
Scottie Scheffler +275
Xander Schauffele 16-1
Ludvig Aberg 25-1
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 25-1
Russell Henley 25-1
Collin Morikawa 25-1
Justin Thomas 30-1
Viktor Hovland 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Aaron Rai 35-1
Corey Conners 40-1
Sepp Straka 40-1
Sam Burns 40-1
Harris English 40-1
Scheffler is a massive favorite, and that number certainly reflects the absence of McIlroy — but it can’t be by that much, right? There’s not a better golfer on the planet right now, and while it feels dirty to bet a golfer at less than 3-1 to beat 68 other players, he’s the guy (non-Tiger Woods) division for whom you might be willing to pull that trigger.
Betting Options Not Named Scottie Scheffler
That being said, not everyone has the stomach for those sorts of wagers. Here are a few other options for bettors seeking a little more juice.
Ludvig Aberg (25-1): It just feels like a pretty good number that hasn’t been adjusted enough to represent McIlroy’s absence. His irons were woeful, for him at least, for the first half of the season. It has gotten much better since, and the results are finally starting to show up with two top-10 finishes in the last month.
Daniel Berger (45-1): He’s not in the best form and doesn’t have a great course history, but Berger is a solid mid-iron player which you need here, who hits the ball well off the tee. Berger has gained on approach in his last four starts, too. The short game is a mess, but this isn’t the toughest around-the-green test out there, either.
Lucas Glover (70-1): He sucked last week. The irons were surprisingly bad, and the putter was, well, the putter. That’s Glover. But he’s another solid mid- to long-iron player who’s pretty straight off the tee. He had been playing well before missing the cut at Wyndham, too. He had gained at least three strokes on approach in each of his previous three starts, finishing ninth, fifth and 23rd (The Open). He also has a win here in 2023 that he followed up with a third-place finish last year.
Brian Harman (90-1): The former Open champion is always worth at least a look on a course that prioritizes accuracy and doesn’t totally penalize for lack of length. Harman is quietly playing better; he was in contention at Royal Portrush before quietly fading on the weekend, and he posted a top-10 finish at the Travelers Championship. The course history is good not great, but he did finish third in 2022, and Data Golf’s course fit tool gives the left-hander a noticeable boost.
FedEx St. Jude Championship: Last-Minute Picks for First Playoff Event