Getty Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a play during the first quarter of the game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on October 23, 2022 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers are probably going to buy ahead of the NFL’s looming trade deadline, but if they sell, expect general manager Brian Gutekunst and company to sell BIG.
SB Nation on Monday, October 24, pitched the notion of the Packers going all-in on a multiyear rebuild rather than seeking out a pass-catcher and a run-stopper to address the needs of an expensive roster that has underachieved through seven games this season. At the center of that plan is dealing star running back Aaron Jones before his contract situation grows considerably more complicated next summer.
The one star of this season from whom it seems Green Bay really should move on is Aaron Jones. Jones has been the only semblance of competent offense this year, but the financial situation for the team is not tenable. Jones’ cap hit in 2023 is slightly over $20M. The Packers could restructure it a bit or, god forbid, extend the running back well into his thirties, but that seems entirely pointless for a team going nowhere fast for the last few productive years he has.
The best option for Green Bay is to move Jones on in the midst of a career year and take the draft capital received and build out the team the next two years. While Jones is unlikely to get the haul that Christian McCaffrey got Carolina (even though Jones has been both better and more reliable for the past few years), even getting a couple of day two picks would be very helpful to the team going forward.
Packers Unlikely to Deal Aaron Jones Before NFL’s Trade Deadline
GettyRunning back Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers rushes the ball during a game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on October 23, 2022, in Landover, Maryland.
While there is an internal logic to trading Jones, Green Bay is almost certain to avoid such a move — at least until the offseason.
The Packers extended quarterback Aaron Rodgers last summer, making him the highest-paid player annually in league history. The team also spent big to solidify its secondary, the middle of its defense and its pass rush in an attempt to maximize what appeared to be a multiyear Super Bowl window at the end of Rodgers’ career.
Bailing on Jones now after a 3-4 start in a weak NFC would be antithetical to the entire approach the front office has taken for the franchise since re-signing Rodgers. With the two-time reigning MVP still under center and a fan base frustrated with the decision to move on from wide receiver Davante Adams at the expense of the Packers’ offense, don’t look for Green Bay to deal Jones — arguably the best player on the entire roster this season — before November 1.
It is more likely the Packers will attempt to address their faults via the trade market, with players like Denver Broncos wideout Jerry Jeudy and Carolina Panthers receiver D.J. Moore potentially available for the right price. Green Bay can also go the free agent route and attempt to sign Odell Beckham Jr., who is rehabilitating from an ACL injury and is not expected back on the field until mid-November at the earliest.
Jones May Be Playing Last Year in Green Bay Regardless of Outcome
GettyQuarterback Aaron Rodgers (left) and running back Aaron Jones (right) of the Green Bay Packers celebrate a touchdown during a game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on October 23, 2022, in Landover, Maryland.
While Jones landing with another franchise in 2022 is a long shot, his tenure in Green Bay could easily come to an end this offseason.
As noted above, Jones represents a $20 million cap hit next year after agreeing to restructure his deal in February to create more financial flexibility for the Packers this season. The salary burden associated with keeping Jones is hard to justify regardless of the kind of statistics he produces, even if he finishes the year among the best running backs in the league.
More likely, the Packers will look to trade Jones next summer, as cutting him would cost the team nearly $9.6 million in dead money. The problem with that plan, however, is that dealing Jones would require another franchise willing to give up an asset (or several) just to take on a $20 million running back who will enter his seventh NFL season in 2023 at the age of 28.
Teams interested in Jones’ services could simply wait for roster deadlines to approach and force Green Bay’s hand — either keep Jones on the roster at an exorbitant cost considering the running back market in the modern NFL, or cut that cost in half by releasing Jones and eating the resulting cap hit.
The case for keeping the running back long-term boils down to production. After leading the league in rushing touchdowns with 16 during the 2019 campaign, Jones earned a trip to the Pro Bowl in 2020. One of the Packers’ captains this season, Jones has amassed 432 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown on just 78 carries, while catching 26 passes for 176 yards and 3 scores, per Pro Football Reference.
Green Bay also has backup running back A.J. Dillon under contract for one more season on his rookie deal, which represents a cap hit of only $1.6 million in 2023. Dillon has carried the ball 77 times this season for 301 yards and 1 touchdown while catching 13 passes for 80 yards.