Getty Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers reacts during a game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 4, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers will not be in an enviable position this offseason, but sympathy is hard to come by when the front office created the dilemma for itself.
The team owes Aaron Rodgers nearly $62 million next season, including a bonus north of $59 million. Green Bay also must choose by May whether to pick up backup quarterback Jordan Love’s fifth-year option for 2024, a decision likely to ballpark in the $20-million range.
“If you pick [Love’s option] up, you would be spending more money at the quarterback position, I assume, than any team in the league by a pretty hefty margin — the combination of him and Rodgers’ contracts,” Mina Kimes said on the Intercepted podcast on Friday, December 16.
The Packers’ only way out of the potential financial boondoggle, other than Rodgers’ retirement, is to make a trade. While the question of which QB to move is another can of worms all on its own, the short answer is that Rodgers makes the most sense as a trade chip due to his age and comparative trade value.
One team with a recent history of acquiring aging quarterbacks is the Indianapolis Colts, who finished just one win shy of the playoffs in 2021 and have a top-10 pick (No. 7 as of Week 15, to be precise) that can serve as the centerpiece of a deal for Rodgers this coming offseason.
Colts Can Offer Soft Landing Spot For Rodgers, Lucrative Draft Picks For Packers
GettyIndianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor suffered an ankle injury in the fourth quarter of a game against the Tennessee Titans during Week 4 of the 2022 regular season.
The Colts have struggled under quarterback Matt Ryan’s leadership, earning a 5-8-1 record through 14 games after a rout the Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis on Saturday.
However, the team still boasts the 13th ranked defense in the league in 2022, per Pro Football Focus. The Colts also has one of NFL’s the top running backs in Jonathan Taylor, who has struggled to stay healthy this season but led the league in carries, yards and touchdowns last year, per Pro Football Reference. Throw in a group of talented, young wide receivers led by Michael Pittman Jr. and Indianapolis is a quality QB shy of a playoff roster in what has proven to be a weak AFC South Division.
While an argument can be made that the Colts might be reticent to give up major draft capital for the 39-year-old Rodgers, the move may actually make the most sense with their timeline. Taylor is entering his fourth season in 2023 and running backs have among the shortest shelf lives of any players in the NFL. Defensive prowess is also notoriously hard to predict based on previous performance, with consistent results infrequently guaranteed from year-to-year even if the roster remains relatively in tact.
The 2023 draft is QB-heavy, but the Colts are unlikely to get the chance to select either Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud if they can’t move up into the first few picks. There are other quality signal callers with first-round grades, but none that can be counted on to step in and produce at a playoff level immediately as a rookie.
Instead, the Colts could package their top-10 draft pick, wherever it ultimately falls, and an early third-rounder for Rodgers. Jeff Howe of The Athletic has suggested that Rodgers could potentially command two first-rounders in a trade this offseason with the right team, but the Colts may be able to get a deal done for a first and a third if they ask Green Bay to front less of Rodgers’ massive $59 million bonus than other suitors.
Packers Never Should Have Drafted Jordan Love, NFL Insider Says
GettyQuarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (left) and Jordan Love (right) of the Green Bay Packers look on prior to a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lambeau Field on November 17, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
The biggest concern for Green Bay when it comes to trading Rodgers is not knowing exactly what they have in Love.
Kimes on Friday referred to drafting Love in the first round three years ago as the Packers’ “original sin” because of all the strife it created in their relationship with Rodgers and the impossible situation it has put them at quarterback. Green Bay can only resolve its circumstances under center in one of three ways: trading Rodgers, trading Love or keeping them both at an exorbitant price tag that creates competitive disadvantages across the rest of the roster.
“This goes back to the original sin of the draft pick,” Kimes said. “[Green Bay] just created so many difficult decisions, and none of it is optimal. You had a backup on his rookie contract and now it’s gone and you don’t really know how good he is. That would be the benefit of playing him now, is you’d actually have a good sense of that, and I just don’t think anyone knows. And I also think he doesn’t have a ton of trade value because of how little he’s played.”
Kimes added that the best way to hash everything out in Green Bay is to start Love for the remainder of the season, but with the playoffs still a long shot play for the Packers, Rodgers is going to this week. And with a banged-up Los Angeles Rams squad coming to town on Monday night, a win is likely. Thus, a Rodgers start on Christmas Day against the Miami Dolphins is likely, as well.
If you actually think Aaron Rodgers — if you want him to come back, if he wants to come back, then fine, play him, whatever. It’s not worth pissing him off. However, if a trade is plausible next year, there’s zero reason to play Aaron Rodgers. You wanna get Jordan Love the reps. He’s your quarterback next season.
[But] that’s not the world we live in. … It really depends on what [the Packers’] plan is next year but, of course, nobody actually knows what’s going to happen next year.