A year ago, it was No. 2 favorite Sovereignty (at 5-to-1) who edged out the morning favorite, Journalism (3-to-1) to win the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track on the first Saturday in May. This year for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, the weather is expected to be cool but the track should be clear, with no rain expected. There is still a pretty strong headwind for the favorite, though.
That would be Renegade, the Todd Pletcher-trained horse that will take on top jockey Irad Ortiz as its mount and vaulted to the top of the board with its impressive win in the Arkansas Derby. Renegade is a 5-to-1 favorite, a number that probably would have been stronger had the post position draw gone better–Renegade landed the rail at No. 1, a spot that has not produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986.
But Renegade is a strong closer, and in a tightly contested field with a handful of top contenders, there is still hope that the horse can navigate the early going of the Derby from the inside position and still close out with a win.
Kentucky Derby Picks: Chief Wallabee for Randy Moss
Ah, but the problem is, not many see it that way. We poked around to find the picks from top handicappers around the sport, and while no one is ready to write off Renegade, no one is picking him, either.
In fact, the top pick appears to be a 7-to-1 shot coming from Post No. 18. We’ll get to that horse in a moment. But first, we will check in with Randy Moss, who will be analyzing the race for NBC on Saturday. Moss is going with Chief Wallabee at No. 12, whose price has been coming down and now stands at 9-to-1.
Moss mentioned The Puma as a candidate, but said of Chief Wallabee: “You can go a lot of different ways, and believe me, there is not a great deal of confidence in this pick because it is so evenly matched with the exception of Further Ado in the Bluegrass, that if the blinkers move up Chief Wallabee at all, and if Bill Mott lays this like he did with Sovereignty, where he circles it on the calendar, where Chief Wallabee improves and runs his best race on Derby Day, to me that might make the difference.”
Eddie Olczyk Wants Emerging Market
Now, the Kentucky Derby is usually pocked with longshot candidates who could provide big payouts. That might not be the case with this race, though, because there is a layer of about five real contenders in this mix.
Still, one that is lingering just outside the Top 5 is Emerging Market 11-to-1) and that has caught the eye of former Blackhawks-center-turned-handicapper Eddie Olczyk, who is on site for the Derby. Worth noting: Olczyk picked last year’s Derby correctly.
“My pick will be No. 15 Emerging Market for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat,” he told the “Mully and Haugh” show in Chicago. “Only two career races, but I don’t think Chad Brown would run in this race, he has got to be feeling really good about this horse to be only in his third career start and try to win the roses on Saturday. … Ran a huge race in New York the last race, so my pick will be Emerging Market.”
Further Ado Leads Expert Kentucky Derby Picks
But if you’re looking for something close to a Kentucky Derby picks consensus, then without further ado, we give you … Further Ado, a Brad Cox horse with John Velazquez aboard, set to go off from the No. 18 post at 7-to-1.
Let’s start with two Fox Sports handicappers, Jonathan Kinchen and the estimable Maggie Wolfendale.
Kinchen pegged five horses as potential winners–Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, The Puma and Further Ado–but went with Ado: “I think one of those five horses has to win. … The one that I project will get the best trip, if I had to bet, without a doubt to me, it’s Further Ado.”
Wolfendale agreed, and has been on the Further Ado bandwagon for a while: “Further Ado has been my Derby horse from the word, ‘Go.’ So, I am going to stick with him, considering I saw him up at Saratoga and he is a horse that I always thought that classic distances were well within his future. That is bearing out, here in the Kentucky Derby.”
Give Jerry Bailey Further Ado
And there is more Kentucky Derby picks love for Further Ado from legendary jockey Jerry Bailey, who will be on the call for the race for NBC. Bailey pointed out that the fear is that Further Ado’s big win in the Bluegrass Stakes (after a loss to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby) was a one-off. But it was enough to persuade him.
“Even though I am afraid the Bluegrass was too good, I am going to go with Further Ado, I think he gets a really good trip,” Bailey said. “He has shown he is faster than everyone else on his best day. I think he can actually regress a slight bit off his performance at Keeneland and still win. That’s assuming he does not get swept up in a warner, a hotter pace than he would like.”
And finally, there is the guy who will be watching the race closer than anyone: Travis Stone, the Churchill Downs PA announcer. Give him Ado, too.
Said Stone: “I am going to pick Further Ado. I just like this horse. I think he is really talented. He might be nowhere come Saturday, but he has got real talent. Chief Wallabee is my runner-up, that’s a very talented horse. This might be one race too soon for him, but I think he is very good. And my longshot is Golden Tempo. I love a horse that just wants to drop back and come with one run. The Derby has so many examples of this type of horse hitting the board.”
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