Getty Matt Ryan #2 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass against the Minnesota Vikings
Giving up the largest comeback in NFL history is certainly a low point for the Indianapolis Colts this season. The Colts, losers of four straight, are staring down the barrel of a top seven draft pick. Despite the current divisional standings, the Colts still have an outside chance to win the AFC South and make the playoffs. According to 538, the Colts currently have a .2 percent chance to secure the division, while statisticians with the New York Times give the Colts a full one percent chance to make the playoffs.
How did we get here?
The downward trajectory on the Colts season began towards the end of October with the benching of Matt Ryan. After seven weeks of subpar results behind center, the Colts made the decision to give rookie Sam Ehlinger the job. One game later, the Colts decided to move on from their offensive coordinator and play caller, Marcus Brady. Less than a week later, the Colts added head coach Frank Reich to the pile with his firing. The chaos didn’t stop here. A day later Jim Irsay, owner of the Colts, shocked the NFL world by hiring ESPN analyst and former Col’s center, Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach. Saturday attempted to right the ship upon taking the job, he reinstated Matt Ryan as the starter and got an upset win in his debut against the Las Vegas Raiders. Since that game, the Colts have gone on a four-game losing streak, culminating in the historic loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Who will take the AFC South crown?
Despite the month of chaos, the Colts are still in position to make the playoffs this season. The wildcard is too far out of reach, but courtesy of an under-performing division and a tie game on the books, with a little help the Colts could win the AFC South. Currently the Tennessee Titans hold the inside track to the division, with the Jacksonville Jaguars just a game back.
The Titans have the best odds to make the playoffs with a 57 percent chance to win the division according to 538. The path for the Titans is simple, win out and you’re in. In fact, the Titans only need to win two games if one of their wins includes the week 18 match up against the Jaguars.
The Jaguars are not too far behind the Titans, with just under a 50 percent chance to win the division according to 538. With an earlier season win against the Titans, the Jaguars have the head-to-head tie breaker. To win the division the Jaguars need to win one of their next two games, which puts the Jaguars in position for a week 18 ‘win or go-home’ match up against the Titans.
The Colts, third in the division, need a lot of help from the Titans and Jaguars to make the playoffs, but however slim the odds, the chance remains for the Colts. With a record of 4-9-1 the Colts need to win each of their remaining games against the Chargers, Giants and Texans. In addition to the wins, the Colts will need the Jaguars and Titans to lose. If the Titans lose out, and the Jaguars go 1-2 down the home stretch, the Colts will have tiebreakers against both teams thanks to the half game boost in the standings resulting from the Colts early season tie against the Houston Texans. The Colts may not be having the season that was expected, but 3 weeks out and they technically remain in the playoff hunt.