How Patrick Mahomes Sparked NFL’s Crazy WR Market

Patrick Mahomes Deebo Samuel

Getty Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (left) & 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (right).

Welcome to Heavy In The Trenches, a weekly Wednesday column by Heavy NFL insider Matt Lombardo, bringing you insight on the latest storylines and rumblings around the league. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattLombardoNFL.


It’s good to be Tory Dandy.

Dandy might not be a household name to most fans, but he has significantly bolstered his reputation as a market-maker and an NFL powerbroker over the course of this offseason.

You see, Dandy represents some of the premier wide receivers in the league today, including the Philadelphia Eagles‘ A.J. Brown, Seattle Seahawks‘ D.K. Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel, whom the San Francisco 49ers just committed $71.55 million to, including $58.1 million guaranteed, on July 31.

Brown, Metcalf, and Samuel have put pen to paper on deals totaling $243.5 million combined since April, as the wide receiver market reached the financial stratospheres previously reserved for the likes of offensive tackles and cornerbacks on the positional hierarchy.

“More than ever before, the NFL is a ‘throwing and catching’ league,” Heavy contributor and former NFL Executive Randy Mueller says. “That plays a bigger role than anything else in determining values. Teams realize that’s the best way to score points under the current rules, so the receivers are among the biggest benefactors.”

The money train hasn’t even come close to arriving at the station, and its next stop could be a mega-extension for receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, after the Arizona Cardinals acquired the 25-year-old from the Baltimore Ravens in a draft night blockbuster.

Brown’s agent?

You guessed it, CAA’s Tory Dandy.

Kyler Murray

Getty ImagesKyler Murray and Marquis Brown trade jerseys in 2019.

Brown is the exact prototype that teams would want to commit top-dollar to, especially in this brave new world at wide receiver.

The four-year veteran is fresh off his first 1,000-yard season in 2021, and arrives in Kliff Kingsbury’s air-raid offense with the chance to be even more prolific on the receiving end of downfield passes from quarterback Kyler Murray. Especially as Arizona’s top receiver, until DeAndre Hopkins returns.

“Once DeAndre Hopkins gets back and healthy,” an NFL executive recently told Heavy. “Teams are going to have to single [cover] Brown, and I don’t wish that on anybody. He has big time, big time speed.”

Depending on whether Brown gets off to a fast start, the Cardinals could try to extend him during the season, before the market goes up another floor next spring. One league source tells Heavy he believes Brown could command $15-18 million per season.

In addition to Dandy’s clients, the Las Vegas Raiders traded for Davante Adams and made him the highest-paid player at the position, Tyreek Hill inked a $120 million deal after being acquired by the Miami Dolphins, and the Washington Commanders paid Terry McLaurin $71 million.

These lucrative contracts are the aftershocks of a tectonic shift felt around the league back in March.

“The Jaguars and Christian Kirk broke the pay scale,” an NFL agent told Heavy. “And they did it early in free agency, which set the market.”

There are multiple coaches and executives inside the league who believe Kirk could be on the cusp of becoming one of the more dynamic receivers in the game. Especially if Jaguars franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes major strides this season.

However, there is no reasonable argument to be made that Kirk’s past production merited his hefty $72 million extension.

Ultimately, the wide receiver market is evolving at a fevered pitch, beyond even the ludicrous money being thrown around at the position. Samuel, McLaurin, and Metcalf all signed three-year contracts, as opposed to the more traditional four-year deals that have been coveted across the board in the past.

“It’s all about maintaining their market value,” a second agent who represents several top wide receivers told Heavy, on the condition of anonymity to protect the interests of his clients. “I think a number of other agents have learned from the Patrick Mahomes deal that less is actually more.”

Mahomes and the Chiefs agreed to terms on a mammoth 12-year pact that includes $141.8 million guaranteed. Despite the eye-popping totals, it’s also a deal that by its second half could put the Chiefs’ star in the middle of the pack at his position.

It doesn’t sound like that’s a trend that is going to carry over to the receiver position anytime soon, nor is any sort of market correction on the horizon, either.

“Not everyone has a team-first mentality, like Patrick,” the agent explained. “So, the quicker a player can get to a second or third contract while still at the peak of their career is far better for everyone. It comes down to trying to time that next market explosion while they’re still in the prime of their career.”

Matt Lombardo Column


Heavy Hitting the Road!

My training camp tour traversing the I-95 corridor begins on Wednesday, August 3 — and while celebrating in Tampa for Tom Brady’s 45th birthday will have to wait — I couldn’t be more excited to be hitting the road and getting back on the sidelines.

The first stops are some old haunts, beginning in the swamps of Jersey at Giants camp, where I was a beat reporter for three seasons, and where we’ll get an up-close look at Daniel Jones as the quarterback enters a pivotal season and a defense that will likely be anchored by some young playmakers in the secondary.

Next, on August 6, it’s back to the City of Brotherly Love, where my career began, and a glimpse of a roster that could be on the cusp of making a Super Bowl run in the NFC, following arguably general manager Howie Roseman’s most productive offseason to date. If Jalen Hurts can take the next step in his development, with a significantly upgraded supporting cast, the Eagles have the chance to shock the world.

In the coming weeks, we’ll also get a look at the New York Jets, Washington Commanders, and maybe a few more surprises in between.

Be on the lookout for practice video, one-on-one interviews, and my observations from practices at every stop.

You can follow along across Heavy’s network of team sites, as well as on Twitter at @MattLombardoNFL.

See ya up the road!


Predicting the AFC North

The Bills and defending Super Bowl champion Rams kickoff the 2022 NFL season in just over six weeks, on Thursday Night Football on September 8.

In the lead-up to the season opener, I’ll be offering my best guesses for how each of the eight divisions will play out, next up with the AFC North:

1. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)

The Bengals have the best quarterback in the division, who’s only going to get better from here the longer he’s throwing to Ja’Marr Chase, with a dramatically improved offensive line, and the experience of a Super Bowl run that came less than 50 yards from hoisting the Lombardi.

It’s somehow become the chic pick this summer to project a Bengals regression, but I just don’t see it.

Sure, Cincinnati faces the third-toughest schedule, with opponents owning a .536 winning percentage in 2021, but adding La’el Collins, and Alex Cappa in front of Burrow should make an offense that averaged 27.1 points per game (7th most in 2021) more consistent and more prolific. That’s bad news for the rest of the division.

2. Baltimore Ravens (11-7)

With apologies to the Green Jackets, Baltimore “winning” the NFL draft is truly a tradition unlike any other.

Back in April, the Ravens masterfully paired value with need throughout the weekend, as their patience and targeted aggressiveness netted top prospects such as Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, Purdue center Tyler Linderbaum Michigan EDGE David Ojabo, as well as potential Day 3 gem Charlie Kolar.

All this is to say that the Ravens’ window to compete for and win Super Bowls is as wide as ever. Losing Marquise Brown could hamper Baltimore’s offense, but if Lamar Jackson takes another step forward from the pocket, the Ravens could even exceed these expectations.

Deshaun Watson

Getty ImagesDeshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns.

3. Cleveland Browns (9-8)

Deshaun Watson missing at least six games, serving his suspension for allegations of sexual misconduct, will make any climb to the top of this hyper-competitive division a Herculean task for the Browns.

Cleveland certainly has built what has the potential to be a multi-faceted and explosive offense around Watson, especially after adding Amari Cooper to a supporting cast that already included menacing running back duo Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But, whether journeyman Jacoby Brissett can maximize those weapons remains to be seen.

Given the elite quarterbacks in the division, and that the Browns’ slate also features showdowns against the Chargers, Patriots, Bills, Buccaneers, and Saints, any margin for error for this team making a run at the postseason is razor thin.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)

It has been 19 years since the Pittsburgh Steelers finished under .500, but this season has the potential to buck that trend for Mike Tomlin’s nearly unprecedented run at consistent success.

Yes, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, and rookie George Pickens have all kinds of explosive potential, but, for the first time since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season, there’s uncertainty at quarterback in the Iron City.

Besides, whether Mitchell Trubisky can hold off first-round rookie Kenny Pickett for the starting job may not matter if the Steelers don’t dramatically improve a defense that uncharacteristically finished 24th in total defense, ninth in passing defense, and dead-last against the run, in 2021.

As competitive as the AFC North is shaping up to be, this is shaping up to be a season of retooling, at a minimum, for the Steelers, who better hope Pickett is as advertised.


Quote of The Week

“The Jets’ defensive line looks like a pack of hungry wolves … time to EAT!” – NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger

Baldinger was at Jets camp on August 2, and New York is betting big this will be the year that former first-round picks Quinnen Williams and Sheldon Rankins take big steps. Throw in first-round rookie Jermaine Johnson II to the fold, and the Jets sneakily have the chance to be one of the premier front-four pass-rushes in the league.

Johnson arrives after recording 14.0 sacks in his final season at Florida State, before being chosen No. 26 overall in the 2022 draft.

“I liked him a lot as a player coming out,” an NFC scout told Heavy. “He has a ton of talent, a ton of speed, and the ability to bend the edge. The Jets got a good one.”

AFC East quarterbacks, beware.

If Carl Lawson can stay healthy, Johnson can make an immediate impact, and Williams can bounce back from a disappointing Year 3 slump, this may finally be the big payoff of general manager Joe Douglas’ and the Jets’ big commitment to building a formidable front.


Final Thought: The NFL’s No Good, Very Bad Week

Stephen Ross is fortunate that he is still the owner of the Miami Dolphins.

For that matter, Ross is lucky to not have been summarily banned by the NFL released its findings into an investigation into violations of “the integrity of the game,” discovered what the league office described as “unprecedented tampering.

Ross and the Dolphins, the league found, engaged in secretive, illicit, illegal conversations with Tom Brady from 2019 through this past offseason, when the future Hall of Fame quarterback was still under contract with the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively.

Additionally, the Dolphins spoke to Sean Payton about becoming their next head coach, without first seeking permission from the New Orleans Saints to do so, while Payton was still under contract.

Then, of course, there is the ongoing litigation in Brian Flores’ lawsuit alleging the Dolphins participated in discriminatory hiring practices, which the findings released on August 2 did not address.

Ross was suspended through October 17, 2022, fined $1.5 million, and the Dolphins were stripped of a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL draft, and a third-round pick in 2024.

Losing premium draft capital will significantly damage the Dolphins’ on-field product than fining Ross — whose net worth is an estimated $8.2 billion according to Forbes — will make any sort of punitive impact on the owner and architect of Miami’s scheming.

This has not been a banner week for the NFL, when it comes to disciplinary actions.

Whether it is an independent arbiter ruling Deshaun Watson’s suspension should be for six games, despite the quarterback reaching settlements with 23 women in the aftermath of allegations of sexual misconduct against him, or the league fining Ross the equivalent of about $15 or less compared to his net worth, the league failed to rise to these moments.

If Roger Goodell and the NFL truly cared about the sanctity of the games, the integrity of the sport, and maintaining a level playing field, then perhaps allowing an alleged serial sexual predator and a serial tamperer back into the country club before Halloween isn’t the right message to send to fans or the 31 other owners.