The top team in March Madness for the 2026 edition is the Duke Blue Devils, but they almost fell to the 16-seed Siena on Thursday, March 18. Now, Duke basketball goes up against the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday, March 21, and even though they’re favorites to win by a landside, they’re getting a concerning prediction about the team’s chances in the NCAA tournament.
So, up against Siena, Duke entered halftime down by double digits, but they ended the game with a close 71-65 win. So, was that close game an anomaly or a sign on things to come?
On the bright side, the models are giving Duke the win. According to research from Syracuse, “According to Dimers’ popular predictive analytics model, Duke is more likely to defeat TCU at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. This prediction is based on the model giving Duke an 88% chance of winning the game.” They also note that Dimers predicts that Duke has a 54 percent chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 139.5 points has a 53 percent chance of going over.
But, those are the computers talking. What do actual college football analysts and experts have to say about Duke’s chances in the NCAA tournament?
Duke Basketball: Blue Devils Get Troubling Projection for March Madness
Up until Saturday, March 21, Duke has been outscoring their oppositive tams by 18.8 points per game, notching 82 points, according to research from the Athletic, while also allowing 63.2 per contest to rank third in college basketball, and they have a +657 scoring differential. Duke has also been scoring an average of 9 three-pointers per game, while its opponents have 8.1.
So, Duke is ahead, but not by much. In a Saturday, March 21 preview feature for CBS Sports, Matt Russell gives his thoughts on the matchup.
Russell actually makes the case that the Blue Devils will lose this game and that they simply aren’t the same team that they were years ago. “How much more do we need to see? Duke isn’t the same team without Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster,” he states in the feature. “What team would be able to play at the same super-high standard that the Blue Devils set for themselves, without two crucial starters?”
Russell goes on to say, “We’ve got four data points of what Duke is without those two, and they’re fundamentally an under-sized, shallow, quality tournament team. The issue is that the Blue Devils are still rated in the betting market like one of the top four teams in the country.”
Finally, he adds that “using point spread math, there has to be value on a TCU team that will match up much better with Duke in the paint than Siena did.”
Duke Blue Devils Get Another Projection, and This One is Better
However, not everyone agrees. College football expert Pete Fiutak of College Football News goes with Duke by nine points.
“Duke isn’t shooting 41% again like it did in the first round,” he notes. “This is one of the best midrange shooting teams in the country, and it’s even better at coming up with the tough defense that stops runs fast.”
He adds that “TCU was able to slow things down in a four-point loss to Michigan back in November, but it won’t be able to handle a late first half Blue Devil burst.”
Duke Gets Concerning Update Amid TCU Game