On Thursday, March 19, Duke basketball was trailing the Siena Saints, and it caused a bit of a stir in the bracket world. It’s quite ironic that the Duke Blue Devils were going up against the Siena Saints. So, what happens if the Saints beat the Devils?
If the Saints win and Duke goes down, a lot of brackets will be busted. Here are the numbers, based on research.
Duke Basketball Upset to Siena Saints Could Be Huge for Brackets in 2026
Since people just filled out their brackets, the exact percentage of brackets picking Duke to win it all hasn’t been widely published yet. But, we do know a rough number, based on previous years and the fact they’re the No. 1 seed.
So, our very solid, and useful, reference point from last year is ESPN’s Tournament Challenge with tens of millions of brackets, where the Duke Blue Devils were picked to win it all in about 25 percent of brackets. That’s a big number.
In bracket terms, anything more than roughly 20 percent means a team is the clear public favorite. For 2026, all the signals suggest Duke is in a similar spot, because they’re a No. 1 seed and they’ve been listed as the betting favorite. Public betting interest is high.
So, a good projection is that roughly 20 percent to 30 percent of brackets likely have Duke winning it all in 2026. That’s the sweet spot where a pick is popular enough to feel safe but risky enough that if they go down early, it wipes out a huge chunk of the field. Which, of course, is exactly why March gets messy.
This reporter is glad that she didn’t pick Duke to win it all. At first, she did, but then she ended up picking Michigan State to beat them. Either way, this reporter’s bracket is likely going to be busted by the end of the games on Thursday, though.
Duke Was a Heavy Favorite in March Madness
As a No. 1 seed, Duke was a heavy favorite in the NCAA’s March Madness. In a feature for CBS Sports out on Thursday, March 19, Chip Patterson easily picked them to win.
“Siena already plays slow and now the team faces a defense that will be by far its biggest challenge of the season going up against one of the best defensive teams in the country,” he noted in the piece. “Gerry McNamara could throw in a schematic wrinkle but even the motivation to keep this game competitive points to limiting the possessions.”
He added, “It’s possible Duke gets pulled down into a lower-scoring game as well if Riley Mulvey and Siena’s front court can do a good job of protecting the rim without fouling. The Blue Devils’ offensive outcomes are a bit harder to predict (other than advancing), but the defensive identity will provide a steadiness as the No. 1 seed gets their tournament run underway.”
So, Duke was the heavy favorite not only for the game against Siena but for the entire tournament. It’s rare to see a No. 1 seed go down on the first day of the tournament, but it’s happened. Reach out to the author with your thoughts.
Duke Basketball: How Many Brackets Will Bust If They Lose?