Tyler Herro has been a phenomenal member of the Miami Heat‘s rotation this season and finds himself in the running for sixth-man-of-the-year honors as a result.
Throughout the season, the third-year wing has averaged 20.7 points, four assists, and five rebounds per night on 44.7% shooting from the field and 39.9% from the perimeter. Impressively, the lion’s share of Herro’s production has come from the bench, with the Kentucky product starting just 10 games for Miami this season.
There’s a downside to Herro’s production though, as he’s edging closer and closer to the end of his rookie-scale contract. With such high-level production, there’s going to be a plethora of teams vying for Herro’s services when he eventually hits free agency, and a sixth-man-of-the-year award is only going to drive his value up further.
Still, the Heat front office did opt to exercise the final year in Herro’s contract, worth $5.7 million, but that’s simply ensuring they retain his services beyond this season. Pat Riley and the front office will still need to find the cap space necessary to retain their star young player long-term.
According to NBA cap expert Keith Smith, the most likely outcome is that the Heat and Herro come to an agreement on a max contract extension during the upcoming off-season.
“It’s unlikely Tyler Herro is going anywhere. He’s simply too important to what Miami has built, and just as key, to what the Heat are building moving forward. Expect Herro and Miami to come to an agreement on a max deal. Whether that’s four or five years or five years with a player option on the final season, is up in the air.
Or it could be slightly below max, with bonus language to the max. Given his status as the top sixth man in the league, age, continued improvement, and importance to the Heat, Herro will probably get maxed out,” Smith wrote in his cap breakdown for Spotrac.
Herro’s Contract Projects to Hit $180 Million
When you’re proving yourself as one of the best contributors in the NBA in just your third season, a big payday isn’t far away – such is the life of an NBA player.
But, the scope of Herro’s potential contract is certainly mouthwatering and will be a true justification for his performances through the Heat’s run to the top of the Eastern Conference standings in the regular season.
According to Smith’s article, Herro’s contract is expected to breakdown like this: “2023-24: $31,750,000, 2024-25: $34,290,000, 2025-26: $36,830,000, 2026-27: $39,370,000, 2027-28: $41,910,000. Total: Five years, $184,150,000.”
It’s worth noting that Herro’s extension wouldn’t count towards the Heat’s cap sheet until the 2023-24 season, which will give them valuable time to make the moves required to ensure their salary cap sheets work. Despite Herro’s extension still being another year away, the Heat will still have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry on the books, not to mention Duncan Robinson who currently earns $18 million per year – which is why having additional time to plan their next move is essential for the front office.
Herro Struggling in The Playoffs
We’re only three games into the Miami Heat’s 2022 NBA playoff run, but Herro’s struggles from deep are certainly concerning, especially when discussing him in the same breath as a max contract.
Over his first three games of the current post-season, the Milwaukee native is averaging 26.3% from the perimeter on 6.3 attempts per game. Things look even worse when you begin to break down Herro’s scoring struggles by location, as that begins to paint a clearer picture.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Herro is shooting 21% on non-corner threes in the playoffs, as opposed to the 40% he was converting during the regular season. However, the saving grace for the third-year wing is that he’s draining 50% of his corner threes, but with only four attempts that’s a terribly small sample size.
Herro’s struggles aren’t solely from the perimeter either. Throughout the regular season, the 22-year-old was converting 61% of his looks around the rim, over his first three playoff games, that number is currently sitting at 29%.
Luckily, Miami projects to be a deep playoff team this year, so Herro will have plenty of time to fix his shooting percentages and continue proving to the world that he is indeed a max-contract level player.