A rough start to the Diamondbacks‘ season is getting worse. While the team is only two years removed from playing in the World Series, their potential for a return is starting to dwindle. They barely missed the playoffs last season, and are falling behind this season with a sub .500 record. In addition, they received truly troubling news this past weekend.
Corbin Burnes Injury
This past offseason, the D-Backs signed Corbin Burnes to a 6-year, $210 million contract. Burnes had been his usual self with a typical strong start to the season. Unfortunately, he landed on the Injured List with what appears to be a serious elbow injury. He was pulled during his last start and is planning to meet with a specialist. It hasn’t been confirmed, but it certainly sounds like Burnes is on his way to getting Tommy John surgery.
Impact on this Season
The D-Backs signed Burnes to be an ace, and he was performing. So far this season, he holds a 2.66 ERA over 11 starts. He’s been the best pitcher on the team this year and is massively important to the rotation. On top of his talent, the Diamondbacks’ weak spot is their starting pitching. Both Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt have ERAs above 5, plus Eduardo Rodriguez has over a 7 ERA in nine starts. The only other starter who hasn’t performed poorly is Merrill Kelly, who has a 3.43 ERA. Their starting pitching just hasn’t been good this season, there’s no way to debate it.
Zac Gallen should be expected to improve as he is drastically underperforming his career ERA of 3.44, and his current expected ERA is 3.88. But even if he does improve, the D-Backs would only have two quality starters: Gallen and Kelly. It will be hard to compete in the top-heavy National League with that rotation. If Burnes is indeed out for the season, it’s not a stretch to assume that the Diamondbacks’ season may as well be over.
Impact for the Future
To make matters worse, Burnes’ injury will likely have a more severe impact on the future of Arizona. Tommy John would mean he will miss the rest of this season and the entirety of the 2026 season. Then, once Burnes is back, he will be 32 years old, making over $30 million per season over four years.
Coming back from Tommy John in your thirties is no easy task. Many pitchers are shells of themselves afterwards, with the most recent example being Sandy Alcantara. He won the NL Cy Young in 2022, got injured at the end of 2023, and finally made his return this season. So far, he’s been a completely different player, not for the better. Alcantara has given up the most earned runs in baseball and has a 7.89 ERA. Advanced analytics show that his once dominant offspeed looks nothing like it used to.
At the time of the Burnes signing, fans were excited by the bold move. With the team’s recent success, this felt like it could move the needle and get them back to the World Series.
Now, with the majority of the starting lineup in their thirties and a stacked NL West, it seems like the D-Backs’ window is closing—another example of how bittersweet this sport is.
Aftermath of the Corbin Burnes Elbow Injury