There’s just one team standing in the way of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the 2026 MLB playoffs: the Philadelphia Phillies.
They aren’t playing one another in the final weekend of the regular season, so technically there are a few other teams involved, but the reality is this: If the Diamondbacks want the final NL Wild Card spot, the only team they can chase down to get it is Philadelphia.
So all eyes from the desert will be watching this weekend, in two directions.
On the West Coast, the Diamondbacks are in San Diego for a three-game series with the Padres.
On the East Coast, the Phillies are hosting the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays for three games.
Everything is on the line.
Diamondbacks Playoff Scenarios
Earlier this week, there was a chance that either the San Diego Padres or Chicago Cubs could collapse enough for the Diamondbacks to leapfrog one of them. Both of those possibilities are officially off the table.
It’s Phillies or bust.
There are two paths, both relatively simple to understand, to get Arizona into the postseason. In both, they need to make up two games on the Phillies.
The first is this:
- If the Diamondbacks go 3-0 against the Padres and the Phillies go 1-2 (or worse) against the Rays, Arizona is in.
And the second is just a twist on that:
- If the Diamondbacks go 2-1 against the Padres and the Phillies go 0-3 against the Rays, Arizona is in.
The Diamondbacks are two games back of the Phillies in the standings with three to play, but Arizona does hold the tiebreaker thanks to head-to-head record this season, which is why making up the two games is enough.
So if the Diamondbacks happened to lose on the same day the Phillies won as part of these series, that would indeed eliminate Arizona.
In the meantime, though, there’s still a chance.
Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
The Diamondbacks will open the series in San Diego with a strong right-hander on the mound Friday night in the form of Brandon Pfaadt.
They’re then slated to turn to Corbin Burnes on Saturday, a bit of a risk as he comes back from injury but also certainly an arm with some upside.
Michael Soroka is slated to be the final starter of the regular season for Arizona.
If their playoff hopes remain alive, you can be sure the Diamondbacks will have an all hands on deck approach to this final series.
They aren’t in the perfect setup, because out East, the Rays will likely be resting some players since they’ve already got everything clinched in the American League. That could make it easier for the Phillies.
But at least the Diamondbacks got to the final weekend of the season with an opportunity on their hands, and they’ll have to do the best they can with what they’ve got.
Diamondbacks Playoff Scenarios Come Down to 2 Phillies Paths