The Baltimore Orioles appear to be the frontrunner for the top starting pitcher remaining on the free agent market, according to a former MLB general manager who made his prediction on national television Wednesday.
MLB Insider Steve Phillips, appearing on MLB Network, said he would be “shocked” if free agent left-hander Framber Valdez doesn’t sign with the Orioles. Phillips, who spent nearly a decade as the New York Mets‘ GM, pointed to the connection between Valdez and Baltimore’s front office as a key factor in his prediction.
“The Orioles seem to be the top team there, and it makes sense because Mike Elias knows him from his days in Houston,” Phillips said during the broadcast. “I’ll be shocked if he’s not an Oriole when it’s all said.”
The connection runs deep. Elias, now the Orioles’ president of baseball operations, worked in Houston’s front office from 2012 to 2018, overlapping with Valdez after the Astros signed him as an international free agent in 2015.
MLB Insider Predicts Framber Valdez to Sign With Baltimore Orioles
Phillips explained that Valdez, 32, hasn’t landed a deal because he’s holding out for a contract similar to what other top pitchers received this offseason. Specifically, Phillips mentioned Ranger Suarez’s five-year, $130 million deal with the Red Sox and Dylan Cease’s seven-year, $210 million contract with the Blue Jays as benchmarks Valdez is targeting.
“He’s not getting the deal he wants,” Phillips said. “Wants either more years or more dollars per year and may in relation to the Ranger Suarez contract.”
The longer Valdez waits, Phillips suggested, the more it indicates Baltimore may have the best offer on the table. “If you’re Mike Elias, you’ve put him wherever you’ve offered him, and he hasn’t taken a deal somewhere else, which makes you believe maybe you’ve got the best offer on the table,” Phillips explained.
Valdez’s Value as Ground-Ball Machine
Phillips ranked Valdez as his number one starting pitcher available, citing several factors that make the left-hander attractive despite his age. Valdez originally signed as a position player before converting to a pitcher at age 16, meaning he doesn’t carry the typical arm wear and tear of a 32-year-old hurler.
“I know he is a little older, but he was signed as an outfielder, and he doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear on that arm,” Phillips said. “He’s a bulldog and a workhorse on the mount.”
The numbers back up Phillips’ enthusiasm. Valdez posted a 13-11 record with a 3.66 ERA across 192 innings in 2025 for the Houston Astros. His 58.6% ground ball rate ranked among the best in baseball, a trait Phillips emphasized.
“He’s a ground-ball machine,” Phillips said. “He’s got the best curveball in the game.”
Phillips acknowledged the cross-up incident with catcher César Salazar late last season but said he would “forgive” it given Valdez’s overall body of work.
Orioles Already Made Splash With Pete Alonso
The Orioles signed Pete Alonso on Dec. 10, making the biggest per-annum commitment in franchise history. Adding Valdez would give Baltimore two marquee free agent additions in the same offseason.
The Mets, Giants, and Cubs have also been linked to Valdez in various reports, but Phillips believes Baltimore’s combination of need, financial resources, and the Elias connection will ultimately win out.
“The longer it goes, the more it makes you wonder whether somebody surprising jumps in there on it,” Phillips said. “I can’t imagine it goes much further.”
MLB Insider ‘Shocked’ if Framber Valdez Doesn’t Sign With This Team