The once-bleak outlook surrounding the 2025 Boston Red Sox heading into spring training has taken a surprising turn for the better with Opening Day in Texas less than a week away—though you might not hear that from the analytics crowd.
On February 3rd, Baseball Prospectus (BP), the nation’s preeminent baseball think tank, posted the first edition of their 2025 analytics-driven PECOTA-predicted standings. In them, they forecast the Boston to finish 77.6-84.4—in last place in the American League East—with just a 12% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.4% chance to win the 2025 World Series.
Fast forward to March 21st, and BP’s analytical outlook for the ’25 Sox has improved marginally. The site now has Boston finishing 80.2-81.8—still in last place—but with an “improved” 23.1% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.9% chance to win the 2025 World Series.
Could the Data Be Missing the Mark?
Things are looking up for Red Sox fans eager for the club to snap its three-year playoff drought if you consult those on the ground. On Friday, The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, Ken Rosenthal, and Jen McCaffrey all predicted Boston to win the AL East in 2025.
Injuries to in-division starters like New York’s Gerrit Cole and Lucas Gil as well as Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez have no doubt helped the Red Sox’ chances in the eyes of writers across the game, if only slightly with BP’s algorithm.
In today’s Athletic MLB newsletter, Weaver and Rosenthal wrote, “With the Yankees down a Gerrit, the Red Sox (81-81) are up one Garrett—as in, Crochet.” They also brought in the defending AL third-base Gold Glove winner (Alex Bregman), and Trevor Story is (hopefully) healthy again.”
“The Sox will also be better this season simply because several of their young major-league players,” wrote The Athletic’s Chad Jennings and Jim Bowden on Thursday, “such as center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela and first baseman Triston Casas, [who] look poised for breakout seasons.”
Time will tell who is correct about the fate of Boston’s 2025 edition: the numbers crunched by BP’s PECOTA algorithm or the experienced eyes of The Athletic’s MLB staff.
Analysts’ MLB Predictions Bolster Boston Red Sox Playoff Hopes